%0 Research article
%T Combined occurrence of wind, snow loading and soil frost with implications for risks to forestry in Finland under the current and changing climatic conditions
%A Gregow, Hilppa
%A Peltola, Heli
%A Laapas, Mikko
%A Saku, Seppo
%A Venäläinen, Ari
%D 2011
%J Silva Fennica
%V 45
%N 1
%R doi:10.14214/sf.30
%U https://silvafennica.fi/article/30
%X This work focuses on the combined occurrence of wind, snow loading and  soil frost with implications for risks to forestry in Finland under the  current and changing climatic conditions. For this purpose, we employ  meteorological datasets, available for the period of 1971–2009 and  global climate model (GCM) simulations for the current climate  1971–2000, and periods 2046–65 and 2081–2100 applying the A1B-climate  change scenario. Based on our results, the wind and snow induced risks  to Finnish forests are projected to increase in the future although the  change in the occurrence of strong winds is small. This is because soil  frost depths that support tree anchorage from late autumn to early  spring in Finland are projected to nearly disappear in the southern and  central parts of the country. Heavy snow loads &gt; 30 kg m<sup>–2</sup> are becoming more common in southern and eastern Finland despite that  the average cumulative 5-day snow loads decrease in these areas by 18 to  50%, respectively. As a result of the changes in the combined  occurrence of wind, snow loading and soil frost, the risk of climatic  conditions making conifers liable to uprooting are projected to increase  in southern, central and eastern Finland. In the north, the risk of  stem breakage is becoming more pronounced under snow loading &gt; 20 kg m<sup>–2</sup>.  Despite some uncertainties related to this work, we assume that the  findings can serve as valuable support for the risk assessment of wind  and snow induced damages to Finnish forests and for forestry, in  general.