%0 Research article
%T Projecting pulpwood prices under different assumptions on future capacities in the pulp and paper industry
%A Bolkesjø, Torjus F.
%D 2005
%J Silva Fennica
%V 39
%N 1
%R doi:10.14214/sf.399
%U https://silvafennica.fi/article/399
%X Capacity changes in the pulp and paper industry affect demand for  pulpwood and thus pulpwood prices. This paper analyzes the impacts on  roundwood prices in Norway of two possible capacity changes (one new  machine and one close-down) that currently are high on the agenda in the  Norwegian paper industry, and assesses the generality of the results  obtained from these case studies. The two cases are implemented  exogenously into a regionalized partial equilibrium forest sector model,  and the capacity change scenarios are compared with a business as usual  scenario assuming no demand shocks. The projected pulpwood prices  change significantly in regions near mills where capacity shifts, at  least for the close-down case, but only moderately at an aggregated  national level. The reduction in prices under the close-down studied is  higher than the price increase from the possible capacity increase case.  The asymmetric price responses projected for the two case studies are  supported by sensitivity analyses on other regions and cases  (technologies). For the capacity increase case it is shown that the  level of the projected pulpwood price is sensitive to assumptions on  base-year prices and transport costs of imported roundwood, but the  magnitudes of the price increases projected as a result of increased  demand are less affected by these assumptions.