The effect of grouping on 5-year old volume increment was studied by a simulation technique using spatial growth models estimated in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands in the phase of the first commercial thinning. A total of 24 model stands were regenerated by applying 12 spatial processes for two different diameter distributions. In addition to model stands, 6 different thinnings were simulated in two real stands. The clustering of trees was described with Fisher’s grouping index and by estimating the relative interception of diffuse radiation. In model stands with constant diameter distribution the correlation between the grouping index and volume increment ranged from -0.81 to -0.91. The correlation between volume increment and interception was 0.81–0.83 with one diameter distribution and 0.70 if both distributions were combined. In one thinned stand the correlation between the growth estimate and grouping index varied between -0.33 and 0.76. The correlation between interception and growth was about 0.30 in one stand and 0.72 if both stands were combined. Small irregularities do not decrease the volume production of a young Scots pine stand, but if the clustering is considerable or there are reasonably wide harvest strips, growth will be reduced by 10–20%.
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