%0 Research article
%T A comparison of three modelling approaches for large-scale forest scenario analysis in Finland
%A Nuutinen, Tuula
%A Kellomäki, Seppo
%D 2001
%J Silva Fennica
%V 35
%N 3
%R doi:10.14214/sf.586
%U https://silvafennica.fi/article/586
%X Forests play an important role in the sequestration of carbon dioxide  and the storage of carbon. The potential and efficiency of mitigation  options in forestry have been studied using large-scale forestry  scenario models. In Finland, three models have been applied in attempts  to estimate timber production and related carbon budgets. In this study,  these models are compared. The oldest, MELA, was designed in the 1970s  for the regional and national analysis of timber production. The  European Forest Information Scenario Model, EFISCEN, originally a  Swedish area matrix model, was developed in the early 1980s. SIMA, a  gap-type ecosystem model, was utilised in the 1990s for regional  predictions on how the changing climate may affect forest growth and  timber yield in Finland. In EFISCEN, only the development of growing  stock is endogeneous because the assumptions on growth, and the removal  and rules for felling are given exogeneously. In the SIMA model, the  rules for felling are exogeneous but the growth is modelled based on  individual trees reacting to their environment. In the MELA model, the  management of forests is endogeneous, i.e. the growth, felling regimes  and the development of growing stock are the results of the analysis.  The MELA approach integrated with a process-based ecosystem model seems  most applicable in the analyses of effective mitigation measures  compatible with sustainable forestry under a changing climate. When  using the scenarios for the estimation of carbon budget, the policy  makers should check that the analyses cover the whole area of interest,  and that the assumptions on growth and management together with the  definitions applied correspond with the forestry conditions in question.