%0 Research article
%T Modelling future timber price development by using expert judgments and time series analysis
%A Leskinen, Pekka
%A Kangas, Jyrki
%D 2001
%J Silva Fennica
%V 35
%N 1
%R doi:10.14214/sf.606
%U https://silvafennica.fi/article/606
%X Timber prices belong to the most important variables affecting the  optimality of forest management. On the other hand, forecasting of  timber prices is very uncertain. One difficulty when using past time  series data in forecasting future timber price development is the  possibility of changes in the markets and in the society at large.  Expert knowledge can be applied in forecasting of timber prices as  information additional to that provided by time series modelling. This  paper presents an approach utilising both time series data and expert  judgments in modelling future timber prices. A time series model is used  as the basis for the approach. Parameters describing future timber  price trends, variation in future timber prices, and the probabilities  of price peaks taking place in the future are estimated with expert  judgments as the basis. A case study involving 12 experts was carried  out in Finland, and models were estimated for all the six major timber  assortments in the country. The model produced can be utilised in the  optimisation calculations of forest planning.