%0 Research article
%T Alternative forest management strategies under climatic change – prospects for gap model applications in risk analyses
%A Lindner, Marcus
%A Lasch, Petra
%A Erhard, Markus
%D 2000
%J Silva Fennica
%V 34
%N 2
%R doi:10.14214/sf.634
%U https://silvafennica.fi/article/634
%X The projected global climate change will influence growth and  productivity of natural and managed forests. Since the characteristics  of the future regional climate are still uncertain and the response of  our forests to changes in the atmospheric and climatic conditions may be  both positive or negative, decision making in managed forests should  consider the new risks and uncertainties arising from climatic change,  especially if the rotation periods are long. An extended version of the  forest gap model FORSKA was applied to simulate the forest development  at 488 forest inventory plots in the federal state of Brandenburg,  Germany, under two climate and three management scenarios. The transient  growth dynamics from 1990 to 2100 were investigated at four sites in  different parts of the state, representing the variability of  environmental and forest conditions within Brandenburg. The alternative  management strategies led to distinct differences in forest composition  after 110 years of simulation. The projected climate change affected  both forest productivity and species composition. The impacts of  alternative management scenarios are discussed. It is concluded that the  extended forest gap model can be a valuable tool to support decision  making in forest management under global change.