%0 Research article
%T Climate risks and age-related damage probabilities – effects on the economically optimal rotation length for forest stand management in Japan
%A Kuboyama, Hirofumi
%A Oka, Hiroyasu
%D 2000
%J Silva Fennica
%V 34
%N 2
%R doi:10.14214/sf.637
%U https://silvafennica.fi/article/637
%X We estimated the damage probability according to age class and major  climatic disasters based on ‘Statistical Yearbook of National Forest  Insurance’ from 1960 to 1996. The probability of snow damage is high for  young stands, then gradually decreases with age. On the other hand, the  risk of wind damage gradually increases with age. Decisions about  rotation age should be based on the distribution of damage probability  with stand age. Risk of damage has two contradictory effects on the  optimal rotation period; one is that the rotation-shortening effect  caused by risk of damage around harvest age; another is the  rotation-extending effect due to decrease of rent by the risk of damage  through the raising period. Change of optimal rotation depends on the  relative magnitude of these effects. We examine this by calculating land  expectation value (LEV) using a simulation model with the empirical  damage probability, price and cost. Change of the optimal rotation  period obtained from the national average damage probability is not  significant. However, the optimal rotation is shorter in high wind risk  areas and is longer in high snow risk areas. It is because the damage  probability for a mature stand is high in the case of wind and low in  the case of snow. In addition, the extent of decrease in LEV is smaller  for wind than for snow. The results of simulation based on empirical  data confirm that the optimal rotation period can become either shorter  or longer through incorporating risk in decision making, depending on  the damage probability distribution with stand age.