%0 Research article
%T Integrating variation in tree growth into forest planning
%A Pasanen, Kari
%D 1998
%J Silva Fennica
%V 32
%N 1
%R doi:10.14214/sf.697
%U https://silvafennica.fi/article/697
%X Forest planning is always influenced by uncertain factors. Variations in  growth, outcome of regeneration, timber prices, costs and mortality  cannot be avoided, whereas the quality of inventory data and the models  used for estimation of the state and development of forests can be  improved. Methods have been developed for incorporating risk and  attitude toward risk in decision analysis, but there has been a lack of  good models for dealing with the various sources of risk. The aim of  this study was to estimate stochastic models for the variation in growth  of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), Norway spruce (Picea abies) and birch  (Betula pendula and Betula pubescens). The said models had to be  capable of generating growth scenarios, and thus correlations between  series had to be taken into account. ARMA models were estimated for mean  growth index series from Pohjois-Karjala, eastern Finland. Several ARMA  models, some of which had seasonal parameters, were found to be  adequate for each series. Non-seasonal AR(1) and seasonal AR(1,1) models  were used to produce growth scenarios in the case study, in which  variation in growth was integrated into forest planning.