Current issue: 55(4)
Under compilation: 55(5)
Ingrowth is an important element of stand dynamics in several silvicultural systems, especially in continuous cover forestry. Earlier predictive models for ingrowth in Finnish forests are few and not based on up-to-date statistical methods. Ingrowth is here defined as the number of trees over 1.3 m entering a plot. This study developed new ingrowth models for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) and birch (Betula pendula Roth and B. pubescens Ehrh.) using data from the permanent sample plots of the Finnish national forest inventory. The data were over-dispersed compared to a Poisson process and had many zeros. Therefore, a zero-inflated negative binomial model was used. The total and species-specific stand basal areas, temperature sum and fertility class were used as predictors in the ingrowth models. Both fixed-effects and mixed-effects models were fitted. The mixed-effects model versions included random plot effects. The mixed-effects models had larger likelihoods but provided biased predictions. Also censored prediction was considered where only a certain maximum number of ingrowth trees were accepted for a plot. The models predicted most pine ingrowth in pine-dominated stands on sub-xeric and xeric sites where stand basal area was low. The predicted amount of spruce ingrowth was maximized when the basal area of spruce was 13 m2 ha–1. Increasing temperature sum increased spruce ingrowth. Predicted birch ingrowth decreased with increasing stand basal area and towards low fertility classes. An admixture of pine increased the predicted amount of spruce ingrowth.
The objective of the study is to derive a method by which one can analyze how the probability of damage made by pine weevils on seedlings treated with insecticides depends on the probability of damage on untreated control seedlings, called feeding pressure. Because the probabilities vary from stand to stand and from block to block, the analysis is done using a generalized linear mixed model. The dependency of probability of damage on the feeding pressure cannot be properly analyzed using observed relative frequency of damage of control seedlings as a covariate, but it can be analyzed using a bivariate model. One equation describes damage of control seedlings and another equation damage of treated seedlings. The random stand and block effects of different equations are correlated. For a given probability of stand level control seedling damage, the random stand effect for control seedlings can be computed using a link function, then random stand effects for treated seedlings can be predicted using the best linear predictor from the random effect for control seedlings. Using an inverse link the prediction can again be presented in the probability scale which is of interest to the user. Using these three steps the probability of damage of treated seedlings can be predicted from the control damage probability. The probability of damage of treated seedlings can also be predicted from the observed relative frequency of damaged control seedlings using simulation. The complementary log-log link was used for control seedlings and the log-log link for treated seedlings.
The paper discusses the evaluation of timber production policies with different income (timber drain) schedules. Special attention is given to the temporal smoothness of the income flow. A utility model is formulated in which the objective is to maximize a fixed consumption pattern, and money can be saved and borrowed at different interest rates. We thus have smoothness requirements only for consumption, the capital market then determines the smoothness of the optimal income flow. Present discounted value and maximization of even income flow criteria are special cases of the utility model. Consumption can be maximized by linear programming. A sample problem is presented.
The PDF includes a summary in Finnish.
The interactive effects of water stress and temperature on the CO2 response of photosynthesis was studied in Salix sp. cv. Aquatica using the closed IRGA system. A semi-empirical model was used to describe the CO2 response of photosynthesis. The interactive effect of water stress and temperature was divided into two components: the change in CO2 conductance and the change in the photosynthetic capacity. The CO2 conductance was not dependent on the temperature when the willow plant was well watered, but during water stress it decreased as the temperature increased. The photosynthetic capacity of the willow plant increased along with an increase in temperature when well-watered, but during water stress temperature had quite opposite effect.
The PDF includes a summary in Finnish.
Length of the regeneration period is a criterion commonly used for comparing different reforestation methods. The time factor should be evaluated using a realistic system for long-term planning. In this paper the preliminary evaluation is made by simplified calculations based on the development series. The slow regeneration method is assumed to be otherwise equal to the rapid one but it has a 5- or 10-years delay at the beginning, and the rotation is thus the final cutting age plus 5- or 10-years delay. Cost of the time delay is taken to be the difference in reforestation costs that makes the rapid and the slow methods equivalent. Calculations are made using zero costs for the slow method; but if the cost of the slow method increases, the critical cost difference decreases very slowly. The final cutting age and the regeneration method must be decided simultaneously. Therefore, the cost of the time delay is presented as a function of final cutting age. By maximizing the average annual revenue, rotation can be even increased if more rapid but more expensive regeneration method is used.
The PDF includes a summary in English.