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Articles containing the keyword 'cointegration'.

Category: Research article

article id 6999, category Research article
Virginia Morales Olmos, Jacek P. Siry. (2018). The Law of One Price in global coniferous sawlog markets. Silva Fennica vol. 52 no. 1 article id 6999. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.6999
Highlights: The Law of One Price did not hold for North American, European and South American sawlog markets between 1995–2012; There are long-term relationships between some of the analyzed sawlog prices in these markets; The Law of One Price may hold between sawlogs traded in Sweden and Norway, Norway and Finland, and Canada West and US Northwest.

With progressing globalization of forest production, roundwood prices in different countries may follow similar trends. The Law of One Price (LOP) postulates that the price of a similar product should be the same in different markets when expressed in the same currency. The objectives of this research were (1) to test the LOP in selected coniferous sawlog markets, and (2) to analyze whether a common market – the European Union – leads to the existence of a single sawlog market. The analysis included Brazil, Chile, Finland, Germany, Norway, Poland, Russia Northwest, Sweden, the US South, the US Northwest, Canada East, and Canada West. The results suggest that some of the coniferous sawlog markets were cointegrated which means that they shared a long-term relationship even if in the short-term they do not necessarily adjust to each other. The LOP may hold between coniferous sawlog markets in Sweden and Norway from 1995 through 2012 when sawlog prices were expressed in USD, and in Norway and Finland for 2001–2012 for prices in EUR. Furthermore, the LOP may hold for North American markets in the West for 2004–2012.

  • Morales Olmos, Universidad de la República-Sede Tacuarembó, Ruta 5. km, 386.200, Tacuarembó, CP 45000, Uruguay ORCID ID:E-mail: vmolmos@gmail.com (email)
  • Siry, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, 180 E. Green Street, Athens, GA 30602-2152, USA ORCID ID:E-mail: jsiry@uga.edu
article id 700, category Research article
Riitta H. Hänninen. (1998). Exchange rate changes and the Finnish sawnwood demand and price in the UK market. Silva Fennica vol. 32 no. 1 article id 700. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.700
This paper examines the long-run influence of exchange rate changes on the Finnish sawnwood price in the United Kingdom (UK) using quarterly data for the period 1978–1994. The degree of influence was measured by a pass-through coefficient (PT) obtained from a markup pricing relation of a system model. The model, which included export demand and price equations, was estimated with the cointegration method of Johansen. The results indicated a large PT, which means that exchange rate changes are reflected almost proportionately in Finnish export price expressed in pounds sterling. Thus, the Finnish price of sawnwood in pounds has lowered as a result of depreciation of the Finnish markka (FIM). This has improved Finnish competitiveness and market share in the UK. Appreciation of the FIM has had the opposite effect. It seems that Finnish exporters have made use of depreciations and devaluations of the FIM to maintain and increase their market shares but not necessarily their markups. For Finland, which is in the process of joining the European economic and monetary union (EMU), knowing the size of the PT is also important in assessing the economic impact of membership.
  • Hänninen, Forest Research Institute, Helsinki Research Centre, Unioninkatu 40 A, 00170 Helsinki, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail: riitta.hanninen@metla.fi (email)

Category: Article

article id 5570, category Article
Anne Toppinen, Riitta Hänninen, Susanna Laaksonen. (1996). A dynamic forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price. Silva Fennica vol. 30 no. 4 article id 5570. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.a8505

This study investigates the relationship between Finnish sulphate pulp export prices and international pulp inventories using the Johansen cointegration method. Long-run equilibrium is found to exist between pulp price and NORSCAN inventory for the study period, 1980-94. Granger causality is found to exist from inventory to price but not vice versa. A simple short-run forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price is formed. In preliminary analysis, the explanatory power of model is found to be acceptable but only under stable market conditions.

  • Toppinen, ORCID ID:E-mail:
  • Hänninen, ORCID ID:E-mail:
  • Laaksonen, ORCID ID:E-mail:
article id 7658, category Article
Lauri Hetemäki. (1990). Factor substitution in the Finnish pulp and paper industry. Acta Forestalia Fennica no. 211 article id 7658. https://doi.org/10.14214/aff.7658

The study examines the factor demands of the Finnish pulp and paper industry. In the theoretical part of the study, factor demand equations are derived using neoclassical production theory. In the empirical part, econometric factor demand model is estimated using annual time-series data for the period 1960–86. The relationship of factor demands and their prices are examined in terms of own price, cross price and substitution elasticities.

It is assumed that the ”representative firm” in the pulp and paper industry is minimizing its costs of production at a given output level. In addition, a number of other assumptions are made which enable the production technology to be represented by a cost function, in which the inputs are capital, labour, energy and raw materials. From the cost function, the factor demand equations, i.e., the cost share equations are derived by applying Shephard’s lemma. The equations are transformed to estimable form using translog approximation for the underlying factor share functions.

The study differs from the previous factor demand studies by applying the error correction model based on the Granger Representation Theorem and the results of the cointegration literature to model the dynamics of the factor demand. This approach provides a statistically consistent method for estimating the long-run static factor demand equations and the corresponding short-run equations. In general, the econometrics of integrated processes (e.g. stationarity and cointegration tests) applied in the present study have not been applied before in factor demand systems models.

The empirical results of the study indicate that the error correction approach can be applied to estimations of the factor demands for the pulp and paper industry. In both industry sectors, the adjustment to short run disequlibrium (price shocks) appears to be fairly rapid. The most significant results of the calculated elasticities are that the factor demands of pulp and paper industries clearly react to changes in factor prices and that there are significant substitution possibilities between the different inputs. The absolute values of the elasticities are, on average, somewhat larger than have been obtained in previous studies.

The PDF includes a summary in Finnish.

  • Hetemäki, ORCID ID:E-mail:

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