Current issue: 54(2)
Growth and yield tables are constrained by a standard production regime and the stand-level dynamic models are an attractive alternative for the even-aged monospecific stands. The objective of this study is to derive a parsimonious and biologically sound whole-stand dynamic growth model and to validate its consistency and relevance for prediction of stand growth and yield. The state-space modelling approach was employed, introducing several novelties in comparison with its current usage. The model consists of a three-dimensional state vector, defined by dominant stand height, number of trees per hectare and mean stem volume, and three transition functions. A site index model was incorporated for height growth projection and transition functions for stand density and mean stem volume with respect to dominant height increase were derived from simple allometries and biological rationale. The model was examined with data from 79 permanent sample plots in Scots pine plantations. Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression was used to account for cross-equation correlations, and the Base-Height-Invariant dummy variable method was employed to estimate dynamic-form equations. Model consistency was validated in terms of accuracy of predictions and applicability to both thinned and unthinned stands. The new dynamic growth model is a parsimonious biometric whole-stand model that simulates the expected stand development for a broad spectrum of potential management alternatives and can be incorporated in a computer program for further use. It may be especially useful for application when a scarcity of longitudinal data prevents the use of more complicated modelling approaches.