Current issue: 54(2)

Under compilation: 54(3)

Impact factor 1.683
5-year impact factor 1.950
Silva Fennica 1926-1997
1990-1997
1980-1989
1970-1979
1960-1969
Acta Forestalia Fennica
1953-1968
1933-1952
1913-1932

Articles containing the keyword 'price trend'.

Category: Research article

article id 606, category Research article
Pekka Leskinen, Jyrki Kangas. (2001). Modelling future timber price development by using expert judgments and time series analysis. Silva Fennica vol. 35 no. 1 article id 606. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.606
Timber prices belong to the most important variables affecting the optimality of forest management. On the other hand, forecasting of timber prices is very uncertain. One difficulty when using past time series data in forecasting future timber price development is the possibility of changes in the markets and in the society at large. Expert knowledge can be applied in forecasting of timber prices as information additional to that provided by time series modelling. This paper presents an approach utilising both time series data and expert judgments in modelling future timber prices. A time series model is used as the basis for the approach. Parameters describing future timber price trends, variation in future timber prices, and the probabilities of price peaks taking place in the future are estimated with expert judgments as the basis. A case study involving 12 experts was carried out in Finland, and models were estimated for all the six major timber assortments in the country. The model produced can be utilised in the optimisation calculations of forest planning.
  • Leskinen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Kannus Research Station, P.O. Box 44, FIN-69101 Kannus, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail: pekka.leskinen@metla.fi (email)
  • Kangas, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Kannus Research Station, P.O. Box 44, FIN-69101 Kannus, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail:

Register
Click this link to register for Silva Fennica submission and tracking system.
Log in
If you are a registered user, log in to save your selected articles for later access.
Contents alert
Sign up to receive alerts of new content
Your selected articles

Committee on Publication Ethics A Trusted Community-Governed Archive