Current issue: 53(4)
We modelled the effect of habitat composition and roads on the number and occurrence of moose (Alces alces L.) damage in Ostrobothnia and Lapland using a zero-inflated count model. Models were developed for 1 km2, 25 km2 and 100 km2 landscapes consisting of equilateral rectangular grid cells. Count models predict the number of damage, i.e. the number of plantations and zero models the probability of a landscape being without damage for a given habitat composition. The number of moose damage in neighboring grid cells was a significant predictor in all models. The proportion of mature forest was the most frequent significant variable, and an increasing admixture of mature forests among plantations increased the number and occurrence of damage. The amount of all types of plantations was the second most common significant variable predicting increasing damage along with increasing amount of plantations. An increase in thinning forests as an admixture also increased damage in 1 km2 landscapes in both areas, whereas an increase in pine-dominated thinning forests in Lapland reduced the number of damage in 25 km2 landscapes. An increasing amount of inhabited areas in Ostrobothnia and the length of connecting roads in Lapland reduced the number of damage in 1 and 25 km2 landscapes. Differences in model variables between areas suggest that models of moose damage risk should be adjusted according to characteristics that are specific to the study area.
The first aim of this study was to develop a simulation model describing the flow of different timber qualities to different firms. The second aim was to study preliminary the factors which affect timber distributions. In addition, we tested the hypothesis that in a small sawmill firm the traditional way of organizing timber procurement does not direct effectively good quality logs to the special production. The game theoretic approaching and the principles of Monte-Carlo simulation were applied in development of the simulation model. The most important factors of the model were tried to find for further studies with sensitive analysis. Empirical validation brought forth promising results in the area of one municipality. The buyer’s awareness of a marked stand, the seller’s willingness to sell a marked stand, the buyer’s ability to pay for wood and the proportion of first quality pine logs in a marked stand affected the distribution of pine logs. The results also supported the hypothesis that the traditional system, in which sawmills or their own forest departments procure themselves all timber needed, is not the most effective way to direct enough good quality timber to the special production.