Current issue: 54(4)
Under compilation: 54(5)
The existence and direction of causal relationships between the time series for the Finnish roundwood market for the period 1960–1994 is tested. Using simple bivariate analysis, we found evidence that for both logs and pulpwood, the lagged prices are helpful in forecasting quantity for the next year, but not vice versa. Saw log stumpage prices have significantly Granger-caused pulpwood prices over the business cycles, but the effect has diminished towards the present time. For quantities traded, the direction of causality was rather from pulpwood to saw logs. The consistency of bivariate test results was checked by the Granger-causality tests within trivariate VAR-models for both markets, and the results were found to be fairly similar to bivariate tests. The price fluctuations in the international markets for forest products have been found to be carried to domestic wood markets dominantly via the pulpwood part of the market.
In this paper the system of collective timber price agreement in Norway is described. The history of »collective behaviour» in the roundwood market can be tracked far back in history, with different degrees of importance, and it has totally dominated the price-formation of roundwood from the 1950’s until the present. In trying to answer the question »What has been the effect of the collective price agreements» a few theoretical market models are used and the empirical data are also employed. Both the theoretical discussion and the empirical data seem to indicate that the forest owners are better off with collective price agreements than with a situation where there are no organized price-negotiations.
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