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Fig. 1. The frequencies of the Pinus sylvestris seedlots by latitudinal origin and genetic group.

Fig. 2. The logistic growth curve fitted to the measurements (dots) of the terminal shoot elongation and the main phenological events in a Pinus sylvestris seedling.

Table 1. Results from the mixed model analyses (the final models). The factors labelled as “Group”, “Origin” and “G × O” refer to the factors G, β1, β2i in Eq. 2. The factors denoted as “N/A” were not included in the final model. Significant differences (p < 0.05) are denoted in bold. The trait abbreviations are: GRCESS: Growth cessation; BUDSETDATE: Time from germination to the date when bud set was observed; FRINJURY: Freezing injury, the damaged needle area as percentage of the total needle area; BUDFLUSH: The percentage of freezing-tested seedlings with a recorded bud flush in June following the freezing. The predictions are for seedlings with 100% (EXP1) and 10% rates of needle injury (EXP2).
Trait Experiment Fixed factors Random factors
F-test (type 3) significance Variance components
Group Origin G × O σ2f σ2s σ2b σ2e N
GRCESS EXP1 0.057 <0.000 0.044 N/A 0.1 1.1 25.8 594
EXP2 0.178 0.133 0.150 N/A 4.8 19.5 80.3 445
BUDSETDATE EXP1 0.070 <0.000 0.057 N/A 0.0 10.6 91.7 524
EXP2 0.089 <0.000 0.069 N/A 2.3 8.9 58.3 444
FRINJURY EXP1 0.317 <0.001 0.315 468.5 8.5 154.2 650.4 3017
EXP2 0.143 <0.001 0.108 366.9 3.3 93.6 871.3 1290
FLUSHING EXP1 0.738 0.085 0.731 1.3 0.0 0.9 3013
EXP2 0.272 0.099 N/A 0.0 0.0 3.8 1290
Table 2. Estimated least-square means and their 5% and 95% confidence limits (CLMlo and CLMhi) for the genetic groups in the two experiments and on the two latitudes representing southern (62°N) and northern (66°N) Finland. “Prob.” is the observed significance of Dunnett’s test for the difference between a seed orchard group vs. an unimproved control of the same origin. The pairwise differences found significant at the 5% alpha level are denoted in bold. SO1.0 seedlots of northern origin were not included in EXP1. Similarly, the SO1.5FT group represents exclusively northern origins and the results are shown only for the 66th latitude. The trait acronyms are given in Table 1.
Trait Genetic
group 		Latitude Experiment 1 Experiment 2
Mean CLMlo CLMhi Prob. Mean CLMlo CLMhi Prob.
GRCESS
(days) 		Unimproved 62 89.6 88.2 90.9 91.5 85.8 97.2
SO1.0 62 89.5 88.2 90.7 0.991 87.4 82.8 91.0 0.249
SO1.5 62 89.9 89.0 90.8 0.857 86.9 82.8 91.0 0.165
Unimproved 66 87.6 86.1 89.2 83.1 79.0 87.2
SO1.0 66 - - - 77.4 72.7 82.2 0.063
SO1.5 66 89.9 89.0 90.8 0.175 82.4 75.8 88.9 0.993
SO1.5FT 66 89.6 88.5 90.7 0.183 81.5 77.5 85.4 0.779
BUDSETDATE
(days) 		Unimproved 62 105.1 102.2 108.0 100.2 95.9 104.5
SO1.0 62 106.6 103.9 109.3 0.414 97.5 94.3 100.7 0.527
SO1.5 62 105.4 103.5 107.4 0.859 95.6 92.7 98.4 0.104
Unimproved 66 100.7 97.5 103.6 81.3 78.4 84.3
SO1.0 66 - - - 84.9 81.3 88.4 0.175
SO1.5 66 104.3 100.2 108.5 0.330 83.5 78.5 88.4 0.750
SO1.5FT 66 102.7 100.3 105.1 0.537 81.7 78.8 84.5 0.994
FRINJURY
(%) 		Unimproved 62 57.3 38.9 75.7 83.3 63.8 102.7
SO1.0 62 64.2 45.8 85.5 0.016 84.0 65.1 103.0 0.995
SO1.5 62 61.7 43.6 79.9 0.082 83.1 64.4 101.8 0.999
Unimproved 66 27.0 8.3 45.7 31.1 12.2 49.8
SO1.0 66 - - - 43.3 24.2 62.5 0.071
SO1.5 66 27.3 43.6 79.9 0.999 36.2 16.0 56.2 0.613
SO1.5FT 66 23.8 8.3 45.7 0.578 28.1 9.4 46.8 0.688
BUDFLUSH
(%) 		Unimproved 62 70.4 45.6 87.1 36.2 14.9 64.5
SO1.0 62 71.4 47.0 87.5 0.991 35.0 12.0 68.1 0.999
SO1.5 62 66.7 42.3 84.6 0.676 33.6 14.4 60.4 0.986
Unimproved 66 89.4 70.7 96.7 53.3 31.4 74.2
SO1.0 66 - - - 52.2 27.6 75.8 0.999
SO1.5 66 84.6 62.6 94.7 0.678 50.7 26.9 74.2 0.986
SO1.5FT 66 91.5 77.6 97.1 0.891 58.0 36.2 77.0 0.903
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Fig. 3. Growth cessation (GRCESS) of the seedlots in the two experiments.

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Fig. 4. Bud set (BUDSETDATE) of the seedlots in the two experiments.

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Fig. 5. Freezing injuries (FRINJURY) of the seedlots in the two experiments.

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Fig. 6. Bud flushing rate (BUDFLUSH) of the seedlots in the two experiments. The flushing rates were estimated for 100% and 10% injured seedlings in EXP1 and EXP2, respectively.