Table 1. Summary statistics of variables used in estimating demand elasticities1.
Product Variable Mean Mean SD Min Max Observations
Sawnwood ∆ln Cit overall 0.03 0.51 –3.66 6.87 N = 3533
    between   0.12 –0.94 0.46 n = 179
    within   0.50 –3.64 6.43 T = 19.74
  ∆ln Pit overall –0.001 0.36 –3.20 2.18 N = 3174
    between   0.07 –0.44 0.32 n = 175
    within   0.36 –3.16 2.14 T = 18.14
Plywood ∆ln Cit overall 0.04 0.52 –3.78 3.58 N = 3192
    between   0.10 –0.17 0.58 n = 178
    within   0.51 –3.78 3.59 T = 17.93
  ∆ln Pit overall 0.003 0.38 –2.79 2.48 N = 2913
    between   0.12 –1.11 0.33 n = 175
    within   0.38 –2.92 2.45 T = 16.65
Particleboard ∆ln Cit overall 0.03 0.51 –4.11 4.09 N = 2430
    between   0.13 –0.69 0.80 n = 152
    within   0.50 –4.10 4.11 T = 15.99
  ∆ln Pit overall 0.002 0.37 –3.54 2.52 N = 2036
    between   0.10 –0.67 0.24 n = 139
    within   0.36 –3.41 2.55 T = 14.65
Fiberboard ∆ln Cit overall 0.08 0.61 –5.17 4.74 N = 2596
    between   0.12 –0.24 0.55 n = 159
    within   0.60 –5.17 4.77 T = 16.33
  ∆ln Pit overall 0.005 0.37 –2.41 3.21 N = 2193
    between   0.07 –0.22 0.34 n = 151
    within   0.36 –2.43 2.96 T = 14.52
Newsprint ∆ln Cit overall 0.03 0.40 –3.07 2.64 N = 2638
    between   0.10 –0.16 0.69 n = 153
    within   0.39 –3.04 2.66 T = 17.24
  ∆ln Pit overall –0.010 0.25 –1.40 1.59 N = 2539
    between   0.06 –0.25 0.33 n = 149
    within   0.25 –1.41 1.61 T = 17.04
Printing & writing paper ∆ln Cit overall 0.05 0.47 –2.84 4.08 N = 2947
    between   0.09 –0.35 0.52 n = 168
    within   0.47 –2.76 3.61 T = 17.54
  ∆ln Pit overall –0.011 0.25 –1.96 1.93 N = 2920
    between   0.06 –0.47 0.33 n = 168
    within   0.25 –1.99 1.89 T = 17.38
Other paper & paperboard ∆ln Cit overall 0.04 0.40 –4.63 4.63 N = 3119
    between   0.08 –0.24 0.41 n = 171
    within   0.39 –4.64 4.61 T = 18.24
  ∆ln Pit overall –0.004 0.31 –2.50 2.47 N = 3039
    between   0.06 –0.18 0.55 n = 171
    within   0.31 –2.51 2.47 T = 17.77
  ∆lnYit overall 0.05 0.14 –1.06 1.38 N = 3513
    between   0.03 –0.03 0.21 n = 172
    within   0.13 –1.02 1.38 T = 20.42
  rich overall 0.20 0.40 0.00 1.00 N = 3847
    between   0.37 0.00 1.00 n = 175
    within   0.15 –0.62 1.16 T = 21.98
  post03 overall 0.45 0.50 0.00 1.00 N = 3960
    between   0.00 0.45 0.45 n = 180
    within   0.50 0.00 1.00 T = 22
1Cit, Pit, Yit = consumption in country i, year t, N = number of observations, n = number of countries, T = average number of observations per country.
Table 2. Sawnwood GDP and price elasticity of demand, by period and country income.
  1992–2003   2004–2013   Difference
Elast. SE   Elast. SE   Elast. SE
Low income  
   GDP 0.01 0.18   0.42 0.12 ** 0.41 0.22
   Price –0.15 0.08 * –0.17 0.09   –0.02 0.12
High income  
   GDP 0.38 0.14 ** 0.55 0.14 ** 0.18 0.20
   Price –0.22 0.09 ** –0.36 0.17 * 0.14 0.19
Difference   Homogeneity
F (6,2883)=1.07
   GDP 0.37 0.23   0.13 0.18  
   Price –0.07 0.12   –0.19 0.19  
SE = standard error. *,** = significant at 5%, 1%.
Table 3. Differentiated GDP and price elasticity of demand obtained by pooling data from different periods or income level countries, in the absence of statistically significant differences.
Commodity Incomelevel Years Elasticity
GDP SE   Price SE  
Sawnwood Low or high 1992–2013 0.24 0.10 * –0.17 0.05 **
Veneer & plywood Low 2004–2013 0.72 0.11 ** –0.33 0.05 **
  High 2004–2013 0.72 0.11 ** –0.61 0.12 **
Particleboard Low or high 1992–2013 0.59 0.09 ** –0.51 0.05 **
Fiberboard Low or high 2004–2013 0.92 0.12 ** –0.54 0.06 **
Newsprint Low 1992–2013 0.42 0.06 ** –0.25 0.05 **
  High 1992–2013 0.39 0.17 * –0.04 0.13  
Printing & writing Low or high 2004–2013 0.59 0.08 ** –0.53 0.10 **
Other paper & paperboard Low or high 2004–2013 0.40 0.08 ** –0.45 0.06 **
SE = standard error.*,** = significant at 5%, 1%.
Table 4. Veneer & plywood GDP and price elasticity of demand, by period and country income.
  1992–2003   2004–2013   Difference   
Elast. SE   Elast. SE   Elast. SE  
Low income                  
   GDP 0.59 0.13 ** 0.66 0.12 ** 0.08 0.18  
   Price –0.37 0.07 ** –0.33 0.05 ** 0.04 0.09  
High income                  
   GDP 0.08 0.20   0.97 0.23 ** 0.89 0.30 **
   Price –0.35 0.12 ** –0.62 0.12 ** –0.27 0.17  
Difference             Homogeneity
F (6,2672)=2.75*
   GDP –0.51 0.24 ** 0.30 0.26  
   Price 0.02 0.14   –0.29 0.13 *
SE = standard error. *,** = significant at 5%, 1%.
Table 5. Particleboard GDP and price elasticity of demand, by period and country income.
  1992–2003   2004–2013   Difference
Elast. SE   Elast. SE   Elast. SE
Low income                
   GDP 0.49 0.14 ** 0.67 0.15 ** 0.18 0.21
   Price –0.40 0.10 ** –0.62 0.07 ** –0.22 0.12
High income                
   GDP 0.57 0.17 ** 0.55 0.21 ** –0.01 0.27
   Price –0.41 0.13 ** –0.55 0.13 ** –0.13 0.18
Difference             Homogeneity
F (6,1871)=0.74
   GDP 0.08 0.22   –0.12 0.26  
   Price –0.01 0.16   0.07 0.15  
SE = standard error. *,** = significant at 5%, 1%.
Table 6. Fiberboard GDP and price elasticity of demand, by period and income level.
  1992–2003    2004–2013    Difference  
Elast. SE   Elast. SE   Elast. SE  
Low income                  
   GDP 1.00 0.45 * 0.94 0.14 ** –0.06 0.47  
   Price –0.52 0.09 ** –0.60 0.07 ** –0.08 0.11  
High income                  
   GDP 0.81 0.24 ** 0.79 0.23 ** –0.02 0.33  
   Price –0.85 0.10 ** –0.32 0.165   0.53 0.19 **
Difference             Homogeneity
F (6,2070)=0.14
   GDP –0.19 0.51   –0.15 0.27  
   Price –0.32 0.14 * 0.29 0.18  
SE = standard error. *,** = significant at 5%, 1%.
Table 7. Newsprint GDP and price elasticity of demand, by period and income level.
  1992–2003   2004–2013   Difference 
Elast. SE   Elast. SE   Elast. SE
Low income                
   GDP 0.54 0.09 ** 0.34 0.07 ** –0.20 0.12
   Price –0.20 0.05 ** –0.34 0.08 ** –0.15 0.10
Rich                
   GDP 0.08 0.17   0.57 0.25 * 0.49 0.30
   Price –0.22 0.15   0.29 0.25   0.51 0.29
Difference             Homogeneity
F (6,2381)=3.12**
   GDP –0.46 0.19 * 0.23 0.26  
   Price –0.02 0.16   0.64 0.26 *
SE = standard error. *,** = significant at 5%, 1%.
Table 8. Printing & writing paper GDP and price elasticity of demand, by period and income level.
  1992–2003    2004–2013    Difference  
Elast. SE   Elast. SE   Elast. SE  
Low income                  
   GDP 0.23 0.10 * 0.58 0.09 ** 0.35 0.14 **
   Price –0.76 0.07 ** –0.53 0.12 ** 0.23 0.14  
High income                  
   GDP 0.45 0.19 * 0.66 0.21 ** 0.20 0.29  
   Price –0.53 0.12 ** –0.54 0.16 ** –0.01 0.19  
Difference             Homogeneity
F (6,2755)=2.24*
   GDP 0.23 0.22   0.08 0.23  
   Price 0.23 0.14   0.00 0.20  
SE = standard error. *,** = significant at 5%, 1%.
Table 9. Other paper & paperboard GDP and price elasticitity of demand, by period and income level.
  1992–2003    2004–2013    Difference  
Elast. SE   Elast. SE   Elast. SE  
Low income                  
   GDP 0.16 0.08   0.40 0.09 ** 0.25 0.12 *
   Price –0.33 0.08 ** –0.43 0.072 ** –0.10 0.11  
High income                  
   GDP 0.36 0.19   0.37 0.12 ** 0.01 0.23  
   Price –0.29 0.09 ** –0.52 0.09 ** –0.24 0.13  
Difference             Homogeneity
F (6,2839)=1.6
   GDP 0.20 0.21   –0.03 0.152  
   Price 0.04 0.12   –0.10 0.11  
SE = standard error. *,** = significant at 5%, 1%.
Table 10. GDP and price elasticity obtained by pooling all countries and years from 1992 to 2013.
  Elasticity
Commodity GDP SE   Price SE  
Sawnwood 0.24 0.10 ** –0.17 0.05 **
Veneer & plywood 0.62 0.08 ** –0.37 0.04 **
Particleboard 0.59 0.09 ** –0.51 0.05 **
Fiberboard 0.93 0.15 ** –0.58 0.05 **
Newsprint 0.43 0.06 ** –0.22 0.04 **
Printing & writing 0.44 0.06 ** –0.65 0.05 **
Other paper 0.29 0.06 ** –0.38 0.05 **
SE = standard error. ** = significant at 1%.
Table 11. World export prices in 2065 with demand elasticities differentiated by period and income level (a), or based on all pooled data (b).
Product Unit 2012 2065 (a) 2065 (b) Difference (a)/(b)–1
Industrial roundwood $/m3 108 162 153 0.06
Sawnwood $/m3 269 354 343 0.03
Veneer & plywood $/m3 596 1048 991 0.06
Particleboard $/m3 280 556 549 0.01
Fiberboard $/m3 443 908 897 0.01
Mechanical pulp $/t 474 978 945 0.03
Chemical pulp $/t 602 994 964 0.03
Other fiber pulp $/t 1234 1719 1619 0.06
Waste paper $/t 174 568 464 0.22
Newsprint $/t 639 763 687 0.11
Printing & writing $/t 960 1092 1011 0.08
Other paper & paperboard $/t 1004 1574 1499 0.05
Table 12. Observed and predicted consumption of veneer & plywood, and newsprint in 2065, by region and selected countries, with demand elasticities differentiated by period and income level (a), or based on all pooled data (b).
  Veneer & plywood (106 m3) Newsprint (106 t)
2012 2065 (a) 2065 (b) 2012 2065 (a) 2065 (b)
AFRICA 2.7 17.6 13.1 0.4 2.6 2.7
Egypt 0.6 3.9 3.1 0.1 0.4 0.4
Nigeria 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.3
South Africa 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5
N/C AMERICA 17.0 28.2 28.6 13.0 8.3 8.6
Canada 3.6 5.1 5.3 0.3 0.6 0.6
Mexico 0.8 2.7 2.5 0.4 0.9 0.9
United States 12.2 19.2 19.9 12.2 6.4 6.6
SOUTH AMERICA 3.7 11.6 10.3 0.9 2.8 2.9
Argentina 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Brazil 1.9 5.4 4.9 0.3 1.1 1.2
Chile 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
ASIA 92.8 437.4 360.4 7.6 38.2 39.5
China 70.8 347.7 287.1 1.1 12.7 13.1
India 3.0 26.7 19.3 0.6 10.7 11.2
Indonesia 3.8 21.9 17.4 0.1 1.7 1.7
Japan 6.4 7.6 8.2 3.7 4.2 4.3
Korea, Republic of 2.1 4.2 4.2 0.8 1.4 1.4
Malaysia 1.0 3.5 3.1 0.2 1.1 1.1
OCEANIA 1.4 2.8 2.7 0.7 1.0 1.0
Australia 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8
New Zealand 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.1 0.2 0.2
EUROPE 10.7 22.3 21.7 9.1 13.8 14.2
EU-28 8.1 14.5 14.6 7.8 10.8 11.2
Austria 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3
Finland 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
France 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8
Germany 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.8 2.9
Italy 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.0
Russian Federation 2.1 6.5 6.0 0.9 1.4 1.5
Spain 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2
Sweden 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5
United Kingdom 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.4
WORLD 128.3 519.8 436.9 31.7 66.7 68.9
Table 13. Observed and predicted consumption of printing & writing paper, and other paper & paperboard in 2065, by region and selected countries, with demand elasticities differentiated by period and income level (a), or based on all pooled data (b).
  Printing & writing paper (106 t) Other paper & paperboard (106 t)
2012 2065 (a) 2065 (b) 2012 2065 (a) 2065 (b)
AFRICA 2.0 10.8 7.2 4.1 10.0 7.8
Egypt 0.4 2.2 1.4 1.0 2.9 2.2
Nigeria 0.1 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.6
South Africa 0.8 2.0 1.6 1.6 2.5 2.2
N/C AMERICA 21.6 42.5 36.3 59.5 80.9 74.1
Canada 1.5 2.7 2.3 3.5 4.3 4.0
Mexico 1.3 3.8 2.8 5.6 10.0 8.3
United States 18.5 34.7 30.3 48.9 63.3 59.1
SOUTH AMERICA 4.1 12.9 9.8 11.2 20.1 17.3
Argentina 0.6 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.5
Brazil 2.1 6.2 4.8 7.1 12.6 10.8
Chile 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3
ASIA 48.6 183.4 132.1 127.7 267.4 216.8
China 24.1 97.9 70.2 77.1 171.7 137.7
India 4.1 26.2 16.9 5.4 15.9 12.0
Indonesia 2.1 9.9 6.6 4.5 11.0 8.6
Japan 9.6 13.3 12.4 14.5 15.6 15.3
Korea, Republic of 1.4 3.5 2.9 6.7 9.9 8.9
Malaysia 0.6 1.9 1.4 2.4 4.2 3.6
OCEANIA 1.4 2.7 2.3 2.3 3.1 2.8
Australia 1.3 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.3
New Zealand 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
EUROPE 27.2 49.5 42.8 57.8 76.5 70.1
EU-28 24.8 43.0 37.8 49.4 61.6 57.5
Austria 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.7 1.8 1.8
Finland 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.0 1.0
France 3.3 5.3 4.8 5.5 6.4 6.1
Germany 6.7 9.4 8.8 11.2 12.2 11.9
Italy 2.7 4.0 3.7 6.8 7.5 7.3
Russian Federation 0.8 2.6 2.0 5.3 9.6 8.1
Spain 1.5 2.5 2.2 4.5 5.2 5.0
Sweden 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.5 1.1 1.1
United Kingdom 3.2 5.5 4.9 4.6 5.6 5.3
WORLD 104.9 301.7 230.6 262.7 457.9 389.0