Pekka Leskinen , Jyrki Kangas

Analysing uncertainties of interval judgment data in multiple-criteria evaluation of forest plans

Leskinen P., Kangas J. (1998). Analysing uncertainties of interval judgment data in multiple-criteria evaluation of forest plans. Silva Fennica vol. 32 no. 4 article id 677. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.677

Abstract

The use of interval judgments instead of accurate pairwise comparisons has been proposed as a solution to facilitate the analysis of uncertainties in the widely applied pairwise comparisons technique. A method is presented for deriving probability distributions for the pairwise comparisons and for utilizing the distributions in the analysis of uncertainties in the evaluation process. The first step is that the expert or the decision-maker is queried as to the best guess of the priority ratio of the attributes compared. This is followed by an adjusting query concerning the uncertainty in the comparison: what is the probability of the priority ratio being between the best guess ± 1 unit of the pairwise comparison scale? An application of the method is presented in the form of multiple-criteria evaluation of alternative management plans for a forest area.

Keywords
forest planning; uncertainty; decision analysis; expert judgment; pairwise comparisons

Received 11 April 1997 Accepted 5 August 1998 Published 31 December 1998

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