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Anne Toppinen, Riitta Hänninen, Susanna Laaksonen

A dynamic forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price.

Toppinen A., Hänninen R., Laaksonen S. (1996). A dynamic forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price. Silva Fennica vol. 30 no. 4 article id 5570. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.a8505

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between Finnish sulphate pulp export prices and international pulp inventories using the Johansen cointegration method. Long-run equilibrium is found to exist between pulp price and NORSCAN inventory for the study period, 1980-94. Granger causality is found to exist from inventory to price but not vice versa. A simple short-run forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price is formed. In preliminary analysis, the explanatory power of model is found to be acceptable but only under stable market conditions.

Keywords
pulp; price; inventory; business cycles; cointegration; sulphate pulp; export prices; Finland

Published in 1996

Available at https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.a8505 | Download PDF

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