Jori Uusitalo , Anne Puustelli, Veli-Pekka Kivinen, Tapio Nummi, Bikas K. Sinha

Bayesian estimation of diameter distribution during harvesting

Uusitalo J., Puustelli A., Kivinen V.-P., Nummi T., Sinha B. K. (2006). Bayesian estimation of diameter distribution during harvesting. Silva Fennica vol. 40 no. 4 article id 321. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.321

Abstract

This research aims to combine two different data sets with Bayesian statistics in order to predict the diameter distribution of trees at harvest. The parameters of prior distribution are derived from the forest management plans supplemented by additional ocular information. We derive the parameters for the sample data from the first trees harvested, and then create the posterior distribution within the Bayesian framework. We apply the standard normal distribution to construct diameter (dbh) distributions, although many other theoretical distributions have been proved better with dbh data available. The methodology developed is then tested on nine mature spruce (Picea abies) dominated stands, on which the normal distribution seems to work well in mature spruce stands. The tests indicate that prediction of diameter distribution for the whole stand based on the first trees harvested is not wise, since it tends to give inaccurate predictions. Combining the first trees harvested with prior information seems to increase the reliability of predictions.

Keywords
diameter distribution; Bayesian statistics; tree harvesting

Received 15 June 2004 Accepted 4 July 2006 Published 31 December 2006

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