Full text of this article is only available in PDF format.

H. K. Seip (email)

Methods and possibilities of long-term forecasts in forest management planning

Seip H. K. (1964). Methods and possibilities of long-term forecasts in forest management planning. Silva Fennica no. 115 article id 4719. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.a14278

Abstract

This paper describes different methods of long-term forecasts in forest management planning with a special attention on intention forecasts for a total forest property or district. Methods for calculating the sustained yield on the basis of the actual increment or the yearly area cut are discussed. It is concluded that a better estimate of the sustained yield is obtainable by the application of a long-term forecast technique. Forecasts for 100 years should not be viewed as plans, but as a background for making short-term decisions. Some of the long-term-type programmes, such as the programme of maximum profit, sustained yield in volume and in money are discussed briefly.

It is pointed out that there is often present a conflict between the various elements of the policy formulated by a forest owner. This leads to the conclusion that the calculations of the profitability of single projects may be misleading.

The precision of a long-term forecast is discussed, and how under certain assumptions the error of the allowable cut is influenced by errors in area, volume, age etc. It is shown that the precision in area and volume is more important in this connection than, say, the precision in increment. In conclusion, existing knowledge, methods and equipment for calculations constitute a basis for long-term forecasts which make them an important instrument in forest management planning.

The PDF includes a summary in English.

Original keywords
metsänhoito; metsätalous; metsäsuunnittelu; ennusteet

English keywords
forest management; forest planning; forest management planning; forecasts

Published in 1964

Views 1990

Available at https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.a14278 | Download PDF

Creative Commons License CC BY-SA 4.0

Register
Click this link to register to Silva Fennica.
Log in
If you are a registered user, log in to save your selected articles for later access.
Contents alert
Sign up to receive alerts of new content

Your selected articles
Your search results
Uuttera J., Hyppänen H. (1997) Relationship between forest management planning .. Silva Fennica vol. 31 no. 4 article id 5637
Pukkala T., Kangas J. et al. (1997) Integrating forest-level and compartment-level i.. Silva Fennica vol. 31 no. 4 article id 5636
Peltonen M., Heliövaara K. et al. (1997) Forest insects and environmental variation in st.. Silva Fennica vol. 31 no. 2 article id 5613
Lilja A., Kurkela T. et al. (1997) Nursery practices and management of fungal disea.. Silva Fennica vol. 31 no. 1 article id 5611
Parviainen J., (1996) Tasks of forest biodiversity management and moni.. Silva Fennica vol. 30 no. 2–3 article id 5603
Pisarenko A., Strakhov V. (1996) Development and utilization of Russian forest re.. Silva Fennica vol. 30 no. 2–3 article id 5602
Mozgeris G., (1996) Dynamic stratification for estimating pointwise .. Silva Fennica vol. 30 no. 1 article id 5575
Vettenranta J., (1996) Effect of species composition on economic return.. Silva Fennica vol. 30 no. 1 article id 5574
Pesonen M., Kettunen A. et al. (1995) Modelling non-industrial private forest landowne.. Silva Fennica vol. 29 no. 2 article id 5555
Kangas J., Karsikko J. et al. (1993) A method for estimating the suitability function.. Silva Fennica vol. 27 no. 4 article id 5519
Kotimäki T., (1993) Contradictory targets in the use of state forest.. Silva Fennica vol. 27 no. 3 article id 5517
Järveläinen V.-P., (1993) Private forestry and the changing values Silva Fennica vol. 27 no. 3 article id 5516
Siitonen M., (1993) Experiences in the use of forest management plan.. Silva Fennica vol. 27 no. 2 article id 5509
Nousiainen I., Pukkala T. (1992) Use of computer graphics for predicting the amen.. Silva Fennica vol. 26 no. 4 article id 5492
Penttinen M., Kinnunen M. (1992) Profitability of forestry in jointly-owned fores.. Silva Fennica vol. 26 no. 4 article id 5489
Kangas J., Pukkala T. (1992) A decision theoretic approach applied to goal pr.. Silva Fennica vol. 26 no. 3 article id 5484
Kellomäki S., Hänninen H. et al. (1988) Model computations on the impacts of the climati.. Silva Fennica vol. 22 no. 4 article id 5362
Hänninen H., Pelkonen P. (1988) Frost hardiness and over-wintering of forest tre.. Silva Fennica vol. 22 no. 3 article id 5350
Pukkala T., (1988) Methods to incorporate the amenity of landscape .. Silva Fennica vol. 22 no. 2 article id 5346
Kellomäki S., Seppälä M. (1987) Simulations on the effects of timber harvesting .. Silva Fennica vol. 21 no. 2 article id 5315
Shimotori S., (1986) Private and municipal forests and the forestry p.. Silva Fennica vol. 20 no. 4 article id 5299
Cubbage F. W., Hodges D. G. (1986) Public and private technical assistance programs.. Silva Fennica vol. 20 no. 4 article id 5298
Henly R. K., Ellefson P. V. (1986) Cost and effectiveness of legal mandates for the.. Silva Fennica vol. 20 no. 4 article id 5296
Gendreau C., (1986) Historical considerations and evolution of the f.. Silva Fennica vol. 20 no. 4 article id 5293
Kaila E., (1985) Observation manipulation and data matrix derivat.. Silva Fennica vol. 19 no. 1 article id 5230
Kuusela K., (1979) Forest balance on the national level. Silva Fennica vol. 13 no. 3 article id 5044
Pärnänen A., (1979) Ecological effects of different land uses and ma.. Silva Fennica vol. 13 no. 2 article id 5023
Leikola M., (1979) The role of forestry in guiding forest policy an.. Silva Fennica vol. 13 no. 1A article id 5013
Schmidt-Vogt H., (1977) Trends in the forest management in Central Europe Silva Fennica vol. 11 no. 1 article id 4961
Kilkki P., Pökälä R. et al. (1975) Linear programming in the planning of timber pro.. Silva Fennica vol. 9 no. 2 article id 4918
Lovén L., (1974) Regional landscape planning of forest areas Silva Fennica vol. 8 no. 3 article id 4906
Järveläinen V.-P., (1969) Opinions about silviculture in farm forestry in .. Silva Fennica vol. 3 no. 3 article id 4800
Ilvessalo M., Ilvessalo Y. (1966) Development of small forest holdings between 193.. Silva Fennica vol. no. 119 article id 4733
Laitakari A., (1964) The condition in Finland’s forests in the 1730s .. Silva Fennica vol. no. 115 article id 4717
Heikinheimo L., Heikurainen L. et al. (1963) Effects of forest improvement on employment and .. Silva Fennica vol. no. 114 article id 4715
Metsätalouden suunnittelukomitea ., (1961) Report of the forest planning committee Silva Fennica vol. 0 no. 110 article id 4697
Wittich W., (1958) Development and significance of the knowledge of.. Silva Fennica vol. no. 96 article id 4678
Kuusela K., (1956) On the structure and growth of birch stands trea.. Silva Fennica vol. no. 90 article id 4652
Yli-Vakkuri P., (1955) Studies on crop marking of District Forestry Boa.. Silva Fennica vol. no. 87 article id 4646
Ahola V. K., (1953) Forest management in state forests of Finland Silva Fennica vol. no. 80 article id 4634
Heikinheimo O., (1948) Forestry in Perä-Pohjola, North-East Finland, an.. Silva Fennica vol. no. 64 article id 4588
Heikinheimo O., (1948) Forest management and centralized loggings Silva Fennica vol. no. 64 article id 4584
Lukkala O. J., (1939) Forest management of forests in drained peatland.. Silva Fennica vol. no. 52 article id 4567
Aro P., (1939) Statistics of felling methods Silva Fennica vol. no. 52 article id 4563
Heikinheimo O., (1939) Forestry and tourism Silva Fennica vol. no. 52 article id 4556
Aaltonen V. T., (1939) Root systems of trees and forest management Silva Fennica vol. no. 52 article id 4552
Komsi T. J., (1938) Criminal law and forests Silva Fennica vol. no. 46 article id 4541
Wuorentaus Y., (1938) Fish farming and management of fishing grounds Silva Fennica vol. no. 46 article id 4540
Tuhti R., (1938) Promotion of agriculture and forestry in Finland Silva Fennica vol. no. 46 article id 4527
Lehtinen I., (1937) Planning and renovation of buildings Silva Fennica vol. no. 39 article id 4501
Lakari O. J., (1937) Forest management planning Silva Fennica vol. no. 39 article id 4484
Böcker C. C., (1929) Silviculture in the Northern countries Silva Fennica vol. no. 13 article id 4454
Hahtola K., (1967) Farm forestry and its socio-economic environment Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 84 no. 2 article id 7183
Linnamies O., (1961) The allowable cut in the State Forests of Finlan.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 74 no. 4 article id 7131
Nyyssönen A., (1959) Finnish research in the fields of forest mensura.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 70 no. 6 article id 7496
Nyyssönen A., (1959) Finnish research in the fields of forest mensura.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 70 no. 5 article id 7495
Linnamies O., (1959) The state forests of Finland and a general manag.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 68 no. 5 article id 7487
Kuusela K., (1959) Management and cutting budget problems in the Hi.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 67 no. 8 article id 7482
Kalela E. K., (1949) Ecological character of tree species and its rel.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 57 no. 1 article id 7397
Kangas E., (1946) Drying of Norway spruce stands as forest damage .. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 52 no. 5 article id 7383
Linnamies O., (1944) Forest resources and condition of the forests in.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 52 no. 2 article id 7380
Lappi-Seppälä M., (1940) Forestry and forest holdings of the residences o.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 49 no. 6 article id 7353
Kalela E. K., (1936) Studies on the development of mixed forest of No.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 44 no. 2 article id 7330
Helander A. Benj., (1936) Anton Gabriel Blomqvist and his contemporaries Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 43 no. 2 article id 7328
Toijala V. R., (1934) Promotion and supervision of private forestry in.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 40 no. 35 article id 7312
Aaltonen V. T., (1934) The development of a forest stand and the growth.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 40 no. 21 article id 7298
Fehér D., (1929) Biology of forest soil and its physiological mea.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 34 no. 14 article id 7227
Ilvessalo L., (1926) Forest research work in Finland : the origins an.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 31 no. 2 article id 7201
Ilvessalo L., (1926) Forest research in Finland: the origins and deve.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 31 no. 1 article id 7200
Aaltonen V. T., (1924) On newer forest management regimes in Germany Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 25 no. 9 article id 7084
Ilvessalo Y., (1920) The relation of the productive capacity of fores.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 15 no. 2 article id 7040
Multamäki S. E., (1919) Studies on state of forests in Savo and Karelia Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 9 no. 2 article id 7020
Morasse J. M. G., (1998) Estimation of cutting volume with three inventor.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 0 no. 261 article id 7521
Kangas J., Loikkanen T. et al. (1996) A participatory approach to tactical forest plan.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 0 no. 251 article id 7513
Pesonen M., (1995) Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choice.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 0 no. 247 article id 7509
Kilkki P., Pökälä R. (1975) A long-term timber production model and its appl.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 0 no. 143 article id 7577
Vesikallio H., (1974) Regional cooperation in farm forests in Finland... Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 0 no. 135 article id 7569
Kilkki P., (1971) Optimization of stand treatment based on the mar.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 0 no. 122 article id 7556
Keltikangas M., (1971) Time factor and investment calculations in timbe.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 0 no. 120 article id 7554
Riihinen P., (1970) The forest owner and his attitudes toward forest.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 0 no. 109 article id 7543
Kilkki P., (1968) Income-oriented cutting budget Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 0 no. 91 article id 7600
López L. N., Sjølie H. K. et al. (2024) Impacts of biodiversity and carbon policies on t.. Silva Fennica vol. 58 no. 4 article id 23067
Pikkarainen L., Strandman H. et al. (2024) Effects of forest conservation and management on.. Silva Fennica vol. 58 no. 2 article id 23045
Strîmbu V. F., Eid T. et al. (2023) A stand level scenario model for the Norwegian f.. Silva Fennica vol. 57 no. 2 article id 23019
Vauhkonen J., Matala J. et al. (2023) Future browsing damage in seedling stands accord.. Silva Fennica vol. 57 no. 2 article id 23012
Anttila P., Ojala J. et al. (2023) The effect of road characteristics on timber tru.. Silva Fennica vol. 56 no. 4 article id 10798
Miina J., Bohlin I. et al. (2021) Lessons learned from assessing the cover and yie.. Silva Fennica vol. 55 no. 5 article id 10573
Melin M., Ylioja T. et al. (2021) Emergence levels of pine shoot beetles from roun.. Silva Fennica vol. 55 no. 5 article id 10525
Dahlgren Lidman F., Holmström E. et al. (2021) Management of spontaneously regenerated mixed st.. Silva Fennica vol. 55 no. 4 article id 10485
Laine T., Kankaanhuhta V. et al. (2020) Effects of spot mounding and inverting on growth.. Silva Fennica vol. 54 no. 5 article id 10369
Kārkliņa A., Brūmelis G. et al. (2020) Effect of salvage-logging on post-fire tree esta.. Silva Fennica vol. 54 no. 5 article id 10334
Kosenius A.-K., Juutinen A. et al. (2020) The role of state-owned commercial forests and f.. Silva Fennica vol. 54 no. 1 article id 10051
Pukkala T., Holt Hanssen K. et al. (2019) Stem taper and bark functions for Norway spruce .. Silva Fennica vol. 53 no. 3 article id 10187
Haara A., Kangas A. et al. (2019) Economic losses caused by tree species proportio.. Silva Fennica vol. 53 no. 2 article id 10089
Maltamo M., Karjalainen T. et al. (2018) Incorporating tree- and stand-level information .. Silva Fennica vol. 52 no. 3 article id 10006
Dong L., Bettinger P. et al. (2018) Reflections on the number of independent solutio.. Silva Fennica vol. 52 no. 1 article id 7803
Nordlander G., Mason E. G. et al. (2017) Influence of climate and forest management on da.. Silva Fennica vol. 51 no. 5 article id 7751
Mazziotta A., Podkopaev D. et al. (2017) Quantifying and resolving conservation conflicts.. Silva Fennica vol. 51 no. 1 article id 1778
Peura M., Triviño M. et al. (2016) Managing boreal forests for the simultaneous pro.. Silva Fennica vol. 50 no. 5 article id 1672
Saad R., Wallerman J. et al. (2016) Local pivotal method sampling design combined wi.. Silva Fennica vol. 50 no. 2 article id 1414
Borges P., Bergseng E. et al. (2015) Impact of maximum opening area constraints on pr.. Silva Fennica vol. 49 no. 5 article id 1347
Moilanen M., Hytönen J. et al. (2015) Fertilization increased growth of Scots pine and.. Silva Fennica vol. 49 no. 3 article id 1301
Pereira S., Prieto A. et al. (2015) Optimal management in Pinus pinea L. stan.. Silva Fennica vol. 49 no. 3 article id 1226
Niemi M., Vastaranta M. et al. (2015) Forest inventory attribute prediction using airb.. Silva Fennica vol. 49 no. 2 article id 1218
Akujärvi A., Hallikainen V. et al. (2014) Effects of reindeer grazing and forestry on grou.. Silva Fennica vol. 48 no. 3 article id 1153
Zamora-Cristales R., Boston K. et al. (2013) Stochastic simulation and optimization of mobile.. Silva Fennica vol. 47 no. 5 article id 937
Nordström E.-M., Holmström H. et al. (2013) Evaluating continuous cover forestry based on th.. Silva Fennica vol. 47 no. 4 article id 1046
Holzleitner F., Kanzian C. et al. (2013) Monitoring the chipping and transportation of wo.. Silva Fennica vol. 47 no. 1 article id 899
Nilsson M., Staal Westerlund D. et al. (2012) Forest planning in a Swedish company – a knowled.. Silva Fennica vol. 46 no. 5 article id 922
Wutzler T., Profft I. et al. (2011) Quantifying tree biomass carbon stocks, their ch.. Silva Fennica vol. 45 no. 3 article id 449
Nordström E.-M., Eriksson L. O. et al. (2011) Multiple criteria decision analysis with conside.. Silva Fennica vol. 45 no. 2 article id 116
Marques S., Garcia-Gonzalo J. et al. (2011) Developing post-fire Eucalyptus globulus stand d.. Silva Fennica vol. 45 no. 1 article id 32
Rabinowitsch-Jokinen R., Vanha-Majamaa I. (2010) Immediate effects of logging, mounding and remov.. Silva Fennica vol. 44 no. 1 article id 162
Stendahl J., Johansson M.-B. et al. (2010) Soil organic carbon in Swedish spruce and pine f.. Silva Fennica vol. 44 no. 1 article id 159
Hokajärvi R., Hujala T. et al. (2009) Effectiveness of sermon policy instruments: fore.. Silva Fennica vol. 43 no. 5 article id 178
Deckmyn G., Mali B. et al. (2009) Using the process-based stand model ANAFORE incl.. Silva Fennica vol. 43 no. 3 article id 204
Kankaanhuhta V., Saksa T. et al. (2009) Variation in the results of Norway spruce planti.. Silva Fennica vol. 43 no. 1 article id 217
Zeng H., Pukkala T. et al. (2007) Application of ant colony optimization for the r.. Silva Fennica vol. 41 no. 2 article id 299
Marjokorpi A., Salo J. (2007) Operational standards and guidelines for biodive.. Silva Fennica vol. 41 no. 2 article id 297
Heinonen T., Kurttila M. et al. (2007) Possibilities to aggregate raster cells through .. Silva Fennica vol. 41 no. 1 article id 474
Veijalainen A.-M., Juntunen M.-L. et al. (2007) Forest nursery waste composting in windrows with.. Silva Fennica vol. 41 no. 1 article id 305
Backéus S., Wikström P. et al. (2006) Modeling carbon sequestration and timber product.. Silva Fennica vol. 40 no. 4 article id 318
Bettinger P., Zhu J. (2006) A new heuristic method for solving spatially con.. Silva Fennica vol. 40 no. 2 article id 477
Heinonen T., Pukkala T. (2004) A comparison of one- and two-compartment neighbo.. Silva Fennica vol. 38 no. 3 article id 419
Hugosson M., Ingemarson F. (2004) Objectives and motivations of small-scale forest.. Silva Fennica vol. 38 no. 2 article id 430
Quine C. P., Humphrey J. W. et al. (2002) An approach to predicting the potential forest c.. Silva Fennica vol. 36 no. 1 article id 560
Hoen H. F., Eid T. et al. (2001) Timber production possibilities and capital yiel.. Silva Fennica vol. 35 no. 3 article id 583
Nyström K., Ståhl G. (2001) Forecasting probability distributions of forest .. Silva Fennica vol. 35 no. 2 article id 595
Leskinen P., Kangas J. (2001) Modelling future timber price development by usi.. Silva Fennica vol. 35 no. 1 article id 606
Kangas J., Leskinen P. et al. (2000) Integrating timber price scenario modeling with .. Silva Fennica vol. 34 no. 4 article id 621
Kuboyama H., Oka H. (2000) Climate risks and age-related damage probabiliti.. Silva Fennica vol. 34 no. 2 article id 637
Lindner M., Lasch P. et al. (2000) Alternative forest management strategies under c.. Silva Fennica vol. 34 no. 2 article id 634
Eid T., (2000) Use of uncertain inventory data in forestry scen.. Silva Fennica vol. 34 no. 2 article id 633
Kangas A. S., Kangas J. (1999) Optimization bias in forest management planning .. Silva Fennica vol. 33 no. 4 article id 651
Lausti A., Penttinen M. (1998) The analysis of return and its components of non.. Silva Fennica vol. 32 no. 1 article id 701
Kogler C., Rauch P. (2018) Discrete event simulation of multimodal and unim.. Silva Fennica vol. 52 no. 4 article id 9984
Shorohova E., Kneeshaw D. et al. (2011) Variability and dynamics of old-growth forests i.. Silva Fennica vol. 45 no. 5 article id 72
Zhang Y., Zhang D. et al. (2005) Small-scale non-industrial private forest owners.. Silva Fennica vol. 39 no. 3 article id 378
Jonsson B. G., Kruys N. et al. (2005) Ecology of species living on dead wood – lessons.. Silva Fennica vol. 39 no. 2 article id 390
Chianucci F., Salvati L. et al. (2016) Long-term response to thinning in a beech (Fa.. Silva Fennica vol. 50 no. 3 article id 1549
Nutto L., Malinovski R. A. et al. (2013) Ergonomic aspects and productivity of different .. Silva Fennica vol. 47 no. 4 article id 1026
Ersson B. T., Hansson L. et al. (2023) Forest management in northern Fennoscandia: the .. Silva Fennica vol. 57 no. 3 article id 23053
Kangas J., Store R. (2002) Socioecological landscape planning: an approach .. Silva Fennica vol. 36 no. 4 article id 527