Current issue: 57(1)
The Economic Council asked Heikinheimo, Holopainen and Kuusela to prepare a report on the development of Finland’s forest resources up to the beginning of the next century. The expansion of forest industry beyond the level foreseen in earlier forecasts, the large-scale removal and neglect of the basic improvements required have weakened the condition of the wood production to such an extent that extensive measures are needed to ensure the continuity of the supply of wood. The results of the calculations are formed in three separately analysed alternatives.
Alternative I: Realisation of the Teho programme and the removal corresponding to it. The development of the growing stock according to the programme would only permit a cut amounting to an annual drain of ca. 51 million m3 up to the year 2000. After that it would be possible gradually to increase the removal. This drain would not itself to utilise fully the already existing production capacity of the industry.
Alternative II: Consequences of the predicted removal if the Teho programme is realised as such. The wood utilization forecast based on the premises given to the team show that the annual drain will grow in 1964–1975 from 52 to 58 million m3, and thereafter by 0.5% annually. This would lead to over-cutting, and exhaust the present growing stock by the turn of the century. If annual total drain of ca. 58 million m3 would after 1975 be sufficient, exhaustion of the growing stock would be postponed for 4–5 years.
Alternative III. Teho programme expanded in conformity with the removal forecast. A new programme is proposed, which includes, among others, large scale fertilization of fully grown firm forest land at about the rate of 100,000 ha/year, intensified artificial regeneration, assurance of the supply of planting stock and seed, increase of forest drainage from the present 155,000 to 250,000 ha/year by 1970, site preparation of the cutting areas for artificial regeneration, increase of tending or seeding stands to 300,000 ha/year, replacement of fuelwood by other fuels, increase of wood import and new forest roads.
This paper describes different methods of long-term forecasts in forest management planning with a special attention on intention forecasts for a total forest property or district. Methods for calculating the sustained yield on the basis of the actual increment or the yearly area cut are discussed. It is concluded that a better estimate of the sustained yield is obtainable by the application of a long-term forecast technique. Forecasts for 100 years should not be viewed as plans, but as a background for making short-term decisions. Some of the long-term-type programmes, such as the programme of maximum profit, sustained yield in volume and in money are discussed briefly.
It is pointed out that there is often present a conflict between the various elements of the policy formulated by a forest owner. This leads to the conclusion that the calculations of the profitability of single projects may be misleading.
The precision of a long-term forecast is discussed, and how under certain assumptions the error of the allowable cut is influenced by errors in area, volume, age etc. It is shown that the precision in area and volume is more important in this connection than, say, the precision in increment. In conclusion, existing knowledge, methods and equipment for calculations constitute a basis for long-term forecasts which make them an important instrument in forest management planning.
The PDF includes a summary in English.
In 1957 the annual cuttings in Finland were 40.2 million m3 without bark. The aim of the study was to estimate the rate of mechanization of harvesting of timber in Finland, and make a prediction of the state of mechanization by 1972. According to the study, harvesting and transportation of the felling volume in 1957 would have required about 25.5 million working hours. Mechanization of forest work has decreased it only by 0.32 million working hours. The profitability of forest work has improved in 1950s, which is mainly due to changes in harvesting, such as shifting to longer lengths of pulpwood and props and cutting unbarked timber.
The study predicts that in 1972 it will take 14.8 million working hours to harvest and 5.4 million working hours to transport a corresponding felling volume as in 1957. However, a new way of producing timber or a working method of wood may change the picture completely. Reduction in harvesting expenses through mechanization may lead to diminishing the minimum diameter of logs, which affects profitability of work. It is also probable that mechanization of wood transportation will lead to working sites with longer distances of forest transportation. Also, industry using wood as raw material will also obviously expand.
The article includes a summary in English.