Carbon sequestration and income generation are competing objectives in modern forest management. The climate commitments of many countries depend on forests as carbon sinks which must be quantified, monitored, and projected into the future. For projections we need tools to model forest development and perform scenario analyses to assess future carbon sequestration potentials under different management regimes, the expected net present value of such regimes, and possible impacts of climate change. We propose a scenario analysis software tool (GAYA 2.0) that can assist in answering these types of questions using stand level simulations, detailed carbon flow models and an optimizer. This paper has two objectives: (1) to describe GAYA 2.0, and (2) demonstrate its potential in a case study where we analyze the forest carbon balance over a region in Norway based on national forest inventory sample plots. The tool was used to map the optimality front between the carbon benefit and net present value. We observed changes in net present value for different levels of carbon benefit as well as changes in optimal management strategies. We predicted future changes in several forest carbon pools as well as albedo and illustrated the impact of gradual increase in forest productivity (i.e., due to climate warming). Having been updated and modernized from its previous version with increased attention to forest carbon and energy fluxes, GAYA 2.0 is an effective tool that offers multiple opportunities to perform various types of scenario analyses in forest management.
An important modifier of forests and forestry practices is browsing by cervids. As high populations of moose (Alces alces L.) cause extensive forest damage in the Fennoscandian boreal forests, models should be able to predict the susceptibility of projected forest structures to browse damage. We augmented the European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM) for the area of seedling stands damaged by moose. The augmented model was tested in projecting both forest resources and moose damage for 18 million hectares of forest land in Finland, based on input data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI). Modeling the area of seedling stands damaged as a function of moose population density, forest characteristics, and region-specific interactions of these variables was found to work realistically for 30 years, predicting that the area of seedling stands damaged by moose would increase by up to a third from the last NFI observation. Our work lays the groundwork for modeling consequential, large-scale ecological and socio-economic effects of moose browsing.
Physically-based reflectance models offer a robust and transferable method to assess biophysical characteristics of vegetation in remote sensing. Forests exhibit explicit structure at many scales, from shoots and branches to landscape patches, and hence present a specific challenge to vegetation reflectance modellers. To relate forest reflectance with its structure, the complexity must be parametrised leading to an increase in the number of reflectance model inputs. The parametrisations link reflectance simulations to measurable forest variables, but at the same time rely on abstractions (e.g. a geometric surface forming a tree crown) and physically-based simplifications that are difficult to quantify robustly. As high-quality data on basic forest structure (e.g. tree height and stand density) and optical properties (e.g. leaf and forest floor reflectance) are becoming increasingly available, we used the well-validated forest reflectance and transmittance model FRT to investigate the effect of the values of the “uncertain” input parameters on the accuracy of modelled forest reflectance. With the state-of-the-art structural and spectral forest information, and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument imagery, we identified that the input parameters influencing the most the modelled reflectance, given that the basic forestry variables are set to their true values and leaf mass is determined from reliable allometric models, are the regularity of the tree distribution and the amount of woody elements. When these parameters were set to their new adjusted values, the model performance improved considerably, reaching in the near infrared spectral region (740–950 nm) nearly zero bias, a relative RMSE of 13% and a correlation coefficient of 0.81. In the visible part of the spectrum, the model performance was not as consistent indicating room for improvement.
Uprooting, as a mechanical pre-commercial thinning operation (PCT), removes competitive, undesired trees with roots to prevent or reduce the need for a second PCT. The state of 66 young Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) stands was explored 3–5 years after uprooting to assess the quality of uprooting in terms of the number of competing birches (Betula spp.) and the probability of freely growing crop tree spruce (no competing trees taller than 2/3 of the crop tree’s height). In the uprooted spruce stands, the number of birches was, on average, about 3800 stems ha−1, and in every fifth stand, it was less than 2000 stems ha−1. The number of birches increased with increasing site wetness (TWI), site fertility and thickness of the humus layer. In 80% of the stands, there were at least 1000 freely growing spruces ha−1, which is approximately the stem number to be left growing after first thinning in a spruce stand. If the height of crop tree spruces was 125 cm at uprooting, the probability of freely growing stems varied from 0.6 to 0.8 in typical cases. According to simulations at the first thinning stage, in most stands, birch was less than 10% taller than spruce, and the volume of birches was low enough that, in the future, spruce and birch would grow in the same crown layer as a mixed spruce–birch stand. The results showed that uprooting can serve as the only PCT operation in a planted spruce stand. The quality obtained by uprooting can be improved with careful selection of timing and conditions for uprooting; the optimal uprooting time is when crop tree spruces have reached about breast height.
Maps of forest resources and other ecosystem services are needed for decision making at different levels. However, such maps are typically presented without addressing the uncertainties. Thus, the users of the maps have vague or no understanding of the uncertainties and can easily make wrong conclusions. Attempts to visualize the uncertainties are also rare, even though the visualization would be highly likely to improve understanding. One complication is that it has been difficult to address the predictions and their uncertainties simultaneously. In this article, the methods for addressing the map uncertainty and visualize them are first reviewed. Then, the methods are tested using laser scanning data with simulated response variable values to illustrate their possibilities. Analytical kriging approach captured the uncertainty of predictions at pixel level in our test case, where the estimated models had similar log-linear shape than the true model. Ensemble modelling with random forest led to slight underestimation of the uncertainties. Simulation is needed when uncertainty estimates are required for landscape level features more complicated than small areas.
Applying arginine-phosphate (AP) to tree seedlings at planting is a novel silvicultural practice in Northern Europe to improve the success of forest regeneration. We present three case-studies of the potential advantages of adding AP at planting on the establishment and damage susceptibility of seedlings in pure and mixed plantings of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst. ) and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) over two years in the field. Location of study sites were in southern (S), northeastern (NE) and northwestern (NW) Sweden. The main agents of damage were pine weevil (Hylobius abietis L.) on conifers at the south site, browsing of birch at all sites and browsing/other top damage to conifers at the north sites. The effect of adding AP varied between the sites. It was positive for survival of pine at site S, despite considerable damage by pine weevil. However, at the S site more of the surviving spruce and birch were browsed when treated with AP. At the NE site AP-treatment had positive effects on conifer growth. At the NW site adding AP positively affected survival and growth of all three species, and AP-treated seedlings of all species were less browsed than untreated seedlings. AP treatment presents a potential tool to improve the success of forest regeneration, especially when establishing pine stands in south Sweden.
Fungal pathogens associated with bark beetles constitute one of the most significant problems to forest health. The Turkish pine (Pinus brutia Ten.) is a native species in the forests of Türkiye and occurs in the Mediterranean-type climate. The Southern Marmara is a natural occurrence area of Turkish pine in the Marmara Region. In the present study, trap logs were set up in pure Pinus brutia forests to investigate fungi associated with Orthotomicus erosus (Wollaston) (Mediterranean pine beetle) throughout Southern Marmara. Orthotomicus erosus adults, larvae, and their galleries were sampled and individually cultured on a 1% CSMA (cycloheximide–streptomycin malt agar) medium. Three ophiostomatoid fungi were identified using morphological characteristics and molecular genetic analyses: Ceratocystis (syn. Ophiostoma) ips (Rumbold) C. Moreau, Graphilbum sp. H.P. Upadhyay & W.B. Kendr., and Leptographium wingfieldii M. Morelet. All three species were new in records of the fungal flora of Türkiye. The most dominant of these species, Ceratocystis ips was isolated 69%. Unexpectedly, L. wingfieldii had a high-frequency association with O. erosus (27%). The pathogenicity tests showed that all three species could cause lesions on branches of Turkish pine but were non-pathogenic or weak pathogenic.
Boom corridor thinning (BCT) is a harvester’s working method, primarily suitable for dense, unmanaged young stands. The method was first studied in Sweden in the early 2000s. In Finland, the idea has been further developed and studied for Finnish forests. The advantage is in the corridor, where the harvester head can move more swiftly, and there is no need to identify trees to grow as much as when using the traditional selective thinning (Sel) method. Moreover, the method can be conducted without cost-intensive pre-clearing of undergrowth, creating post-stands with higher biodiversity. This study is the sequel to a previous study in which experiments on BCT and Sel were established in 2017–2018. The experiments were remeasured 4–5 years after their establishment, and the effect of BCT treatments of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) on the post-treatment growth and growth reaction of individual trees within the treatments was compared to traditional Sel. During the post-treatment period, BCT did not result in growth or yield losses compared to Sel. Within the treatments, the increment of trees at the edge of strip roads or corridors was higher than that of trees located in the middle of strip roads and/or corridors. A longer post-treatment period needs to be studied to analyse the effect of BCT on the total yield and especially the yield of saw logs during the rest of the rotation period.