Jouni Siipilehto, Micky Allen, Urban Nilsson, Andreas Brunner, Saija Huuskonen, Soili Haikarainen, Narayanan Subramanian, Clara Antón-Fernández, Emma Holmström, Kjell Andreassen, Jari Hynynen. (2020). Stand-level mortality models for Nordic boreal forests. Silva Fennica vol. 54 no. 5 article id 10414. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.10414

Keywords: Norway spruce; Scots pine; simulation; broadleaved species; logistic function; period length; plot size

Highlights: Models were developed for predicting stand-level mortality from a large representative NFI data set; The logistic function was used for modelling the probability of no mortality and the proportion of basal area in surviving trees; The models take into account the variation in prediction period length and in plot size; The models showed good fit with respect to stand density, developmental stage and species structure, and showed satisfying fit in the independent data set of unmanaged spruce stands.

Abstract | Full text in HTML | Full text in PDF | Author Info

New mortality models were developed for the purpose of improving long-term growth and yield simulations in Finland, Norway, and Sweden and were based on permanent national forest inventory plots from Sweden and Norway. Mortality was modelled in two steps. The first model predicts the probability of survival, while the second model predicts the proportion of basal area in surviving trees for plots where mortality has occurred. In both models, the logistic function was used. The models incorporate the variation in prediction period length and in plot size. Validation of both models indicated unbiased mortality rates with respect to various stand characteristics such as stand density, average tree diameter, stand age, and the proportion of different tree species, Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), and broadleaves. When testing against an independent dataset of unmanaged spruce-dominated stands in Finland, the models provided unbiased prediction with respect to stand age.

Siipilehto, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Natural resources, P.O. Box 2, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland E-mail: jouni.siipilehto@luke.fi
Allen, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), Division of Forest and Forest Products, NO-1431 Ås, Norway; Larson and McGowin Inc., Mobile, AL 36607, USA https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7824-2849 E-mail: micky.allen@nibio.no
Nilsson, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, SE-23053 Alnarp, Sweden https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7624-4031 E-mail: urban.nilsson@slu.se
Brunner, Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, NO-1432 Ås, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1668-9714 E-mail: andreas.brunner@nmbu.no
Huuskonen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Natural resources, P.O. Box 2, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8630-3982 E-mail: saija.huuskonen@luke.fi
Haikarainen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Natural resources, P.O. Box 2, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8703-3689 E-mail: soili.haikarainen@luke.fi
Subramanian, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, SE-23053 Alnarp, Sweden https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2777-3241 E-mail: narayanan.subramanian@slu.se
Antón-Fernández, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), Division of Forest and Forest Products, NO-1431 Ås, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5545-3320 E-mail: clara.anton.fernandez@nibio.no
Holmström, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, SE-23053 Alnarp, Sweden https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2025-1942 E-mail: emma.holmstrom@slu.se
Andreassen, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), Division of Forest and Forest Products, NO-1431 Ås, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4272-3744 E-mail: kjellandreassen@gmail.com
Hynynen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Natural resources, P.O. Box 2, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland E-mail: jari.hynynen@luke.fi

Click this link to register to Silva Fennica.

If you are a registered user, log in to save your selected articles for later access.

Contents alert

Your selected articles
Send to email

Pykäläinen J., (2000) Defining forest owner’s forest-management goals .. Silva Fennica vol. 34 no. 1 article id 644 (remove) | Edit comment

Johansson T., (1999) Biomass production of Norway spruce (Picea abies.. Silva Fennica vol. 33 no. 4 article id 649 (remove) | Edit comment

Larjavaara M., Muller-Landau H. C. (2011) Cross-section mass: an improved basis for woody .. Silva Fennica vol. 45 no. 2 article id 119 (remove) | Edit comment

Siipilehto J., (2011) Local prediction of stand structure using linear.. Silva Fennica vol. 45 no. 4 article id 99 (remove) | Edit comment

Kuusipalo J., Berg M.-A. et al. (1989) A cross-sectional population survey on the consu.. Silva Fennica vol. 23 no. 1 article id 5372 (remove) | Edit comment

Poso S., Paananen R. et al. (1987) Forest inventory by compartments using satellite.. Silva Fennica vol. 21 no. 1 article id 5307 (remove) | Edit comment

Cajander A. K., (1923) What do the forest types stand for? Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 25 no. 4 article id 7079 (remove) | Edit comment

Nieppola J., (1993) Site classification in Pinus sylvestris L. fores.. Silva Fennica vol. 27 no. 1 article id 5494 (remove) | Edit comment

Johansson T., (1996) Site index curves for European aspen (Populus tr.. Silva Fennica vol. 30 no. 4 article id 5568 (remove) | Edit comment

Cajander A. K., (1930) Characters and meaning of forest types Silva Fennica vol. no. 15 article id 4456 (remove) | Edit comment

Hiltunen V., Kurttila M. et al. (2012) Strengthening top-level guidance in geographical.. Silva Fennica vol. 46 no. 4 article id 909 (remove) | Edit comment

Terhonen E., Kujala S. et al. (2025) Genetic variation of resistance in Scots pine as.. Silva Fennica vol. 59 no. 2 article id 25028 (remove) | Edit comment

Follow @SilvaFennica