Articles by Victor F. Strîmbu

The carbon substitution and storage effects related to Norwegian forests and the forest sector were compared under three potential roundwood harvest scenarios: maintaining harvests at 2021 levels, increasing harvests by 20% due to policies aimed at maximizing economic benefits from the forest sector, and reducing harvests by 20% due to biodiversity concerns. For harvested wood products, both the current product structure and hypothetical alternatives were considered. The carbon stock development in forests was projected using a forestry simulation tool for Norway. Many uncertainties in carbon storage, substitution parameters, and data have been addressed using Monte Carlo simulations. Shifting a portion of pulpwood use to produce wood-based insulation materials and textile fibres was found to increase the climate benefits from the Norwegian forest sector. In contrast, the shift to bioethanol production had only a marginal effect compared to the current production structure. The analysis spanned the next two decades, which is a period relevant to the investment and operational lifespan of industrial facilities. The results suggest that during this time, smarter use of harvested roundwood for HWPs with high carbon substitution benefits can be an effective means of climate change mitigation. However, in the long term, enhancing forest carbon sinks by reducing harvests may be more beneficial for the climate, provided that global efforts to reduce emissions from energy production are successful and lead to a decrease in emissions associated with the production of various materials.

• Kallio, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, P.O.Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5393-761X E-mail: maarit.kallio@nmbu.no
• Strîmbu, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, P.O.Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0588-2036 E-mail: victor.strimbu@nmbu.no
• Gobakken, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, P.O.Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway E-mail: helle.ross.gobakken@nmbu.no
• Gobakken, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, P.O.Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5534-049X E-mail: terje.gobakken@nmbu.no

Carbon sequestration and income generation are competing objectives in modern forest management. The climate commitments of many countries depend on forests as carbon sinks which must be quantified, monitored, and projected into the future. For projections we need tools to model forest development and perform scenario analyses to assess future carbon sequestration potentials under different management regimes, the expected net present value of such regimes, and possible impacts of climate change. We propose a scenario analysis software tool (GAYA 2.0) that can assist in answering these types of questions using stand level simulations, detailed carbon flow models and an optimizer. This paper has two objectives: (1) to describe GAYA 2.0, and (2) demonstrate its potential in a case study where we analyze the forest carbon balance over a region in Norway based on national forest inventory sample plots. The tool was used to map the optimality front between the carbon benefit and net present value. We observed changes in net present value for different levels of carbon benefit as well as changes in optimal management strategies. We predicted future changes in several forest carbon pools as well as albedo and illustrated the impact of gradual increase in forest productivity (i.e., due to climate warming). Having been updated and modernized from its previous version with increased attention to forest carbon and energy fluxes, GAYA 2.0 is an effective tool that offers multiple opportunities to perform various types of scenario analyses in forest management.

• Strîmbu, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, NO-1432 Ås, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0588-2036 E-mail: victor.strimbu@nmbu.no
• Eid, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, NO-1432 Ås, Norway E-mail: tron.eid@nmbu.no
• Gobakken, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, NO-1432 Ås, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5534-049X E-mail: terje.gobakken@nmbu.no