Articles by Francisco X. Aguilar

Measures to enhance boreal forests’ biodiversity and climate change mitigation potential are high on the policy agenda. Site productivity influences management, ecological attributes, and economic outcomes. However, national-level analyses of management implementation in response to policies considering site productivity are lacking. We analyzed impacts of a carbon policy (Carb), a biodiversity policy (Bio) and a combined biodiversity and carbon policy (BioCarb) in Norway using a simulation-optimization framework, assessing impacts on forest management, timber harvest, ecological attributes, and carbon fluxes until year 2140. Management alternatives were simulated in the single-tree simulator TreeSim before being fed into a market model NorFor to compare policy outcomes to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. All policies led to decreased harvests. Old forests expanded from the current 3% to cover 21% or more of the productive forest area in all scenarios. Impacts of policies depended on site productivity. On low-productive land, management under Bio mirrored BAU, while the Carb and BioCarb policies yielded more set-asides. On high-productive land, management intensity under the Carb policy was similar to BAU but the Bio and BioCarb policies resulted in more set-asides and more old forest.  Thus, on low-productive land, the carbon policy showed to have the strongest impact on forest management, while on high-productive land, the biodiversity policy had the strongest impact. With geographical site-productivity gradients, the two policies exhibited different regional effects. The study shows that ex-ante analyses with appropriate tools can provide relevant information of multiple consequences beyond the stated aims which should be considered in policy design.

• López, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Applied Ecology, Agricultural Sciences and Biotechnology, P.O. Box 2400, Koppang, Norway https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6860-3408 E-mail: lucas.lopez@inn.no
• Sjølie, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Applied Ecology, Agricultural Sciences and Biotechnology, P.O. Box 2400, Koppang, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8099-3521 E-mail: hanne.sjolie@inn.no
• Nabhani, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Applied Ecology, Agricultural Sciences and Biotechnology, P.O. Box 2400, Koppang, Norway E-mail: abbas.nabhani@inn.no
• Aguilar, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Forest Economics, SE-901 83 Umeå, Sweden E-mail: francisco.aguilar@slu.se

We draw insights regarding intricacies with spatially explicit data and analyses when studying the vulnerability of forest socio-ecological systems to disruptive abiotic and biotic factors. Common issues associated with data include location precision, spatial delimitation, methodological comparability, and measurement consistency. Spatial data analyses are challenged by issues of interpolation and extrapolation, inferences using data at different spatial scales, and assessment of disruption impacts at detectable spatial scales. The inextricable empirical nature of spatial data and analyses requires carefully conducting and disclosing the sensitivity of findings, and including robustness tests to openly inform decision-makers on issues of uncertainty associated with possible interventions. These considerations might be central to identifying forest socio-ecological hotspots as forest-dominated geographic areas encompassing social and ecological systems vulnerable to disruptions caused by abiotic and biotic factors, but where risks to human wellbeing may be considerably reduced through adaptive interventions.

• Aguilar, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Department of Forest Economics, SE-901 83 Umeå, Sweden https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0226-4467 E-mail: francisco.aguilar@slu.se
• Lautrup, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics, Rolighedsvej 23, 1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark E-mail: ml@ifro.ku.dk
• Kim, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Department of Forest Economics, SE-901 83 Umeå, Sweden https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1919-3346 E-mail: dohun.kim@slu.se
• Tangen, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, P.O. Box 2400, Koppang, Norway https://orcid.org/0009-0001-3145-8159 E-mail: ane.tange@inn.no
• Rautiainen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Bioeconomy and environment, Latokartanonkaari 9, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland E-mail: aapo.rautiainen@luke.fi
• Brownell, University of Copenhagen, Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Forest and Bioresources, Rolighedsvej 23, 1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3798-8783 E-mail: hb@ign.ku.dk
• López, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Applied Ecology, Agricultural Sciences and Biotechnology, P.O. Box 2400, Koppang, Norway https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6860-3408 E-mail: lucas.lopez@inn.no
• Stratton, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics, Rolighedsvej 23, 1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6566-2043 E-mail: adhs@ifro.ku.dk
• Glasenapp, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Institute of Forestry, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg-Bergedorf, Germany E-mail: sebastian.glasenapp@thuenen.de
• Korth, Universidad Nacional de Misiones Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Bertoni 124, Eldorado 3380, Argentina https://orcid.org/0009-0007-3261-8234 E-mail: silviakorth@hotmail.com
• Sjølie, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Applied Ecology, Agricultural Sciences and Biotechnology, P.O. Box 2400, Koppang, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8099-3521 E-mail: hanne.sjolie@inn.no
• Bredahl Jacobsen, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics, Rolighedsvej 23, 1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1313-6228 E-mail: jbj@ifro.ku.dk