Current issue: 57(2)
Under compilation: 57(3)
The task of this study was to gather all available information concerning timber-sales behaviour of private forest owners and to try to find the probable trends in this behaviour. The initiative for the study came from the Central Association of Finnish Forest Industries.
In Finland there are areas of timber savings and those of overcutting. These are mainly explained by regional variation in prosperity of forest owners. There are also several individual factors affecting timber sales behaviour. Without major changes in forest policy the annual variation in quantity cut in Finland is increasing and the degree of cutting seem to remain below the allowable cut.
The PDF includes a summary in English.
The Economic Council asked Heikinheimo, Holopainen and Kuusela to prepare a report on the development of Finland’s forest resources up to the beginning of the next century. The expansion of forest industry beyond the level foreseen in earlier forecasts, the large-scale removal and neglect of the basic improvements required have weakened the condition of the wood production to such an extent that extensive measures are needed to ensure the continuity of the supply of wood. The results of the calculations are formed in three separately analysed alternatives.
Alternative I: Realisation of the Teho programme and the removal corresponding to it. The development of the growing stock according to the programme would only permit a cut amounting to an annual drain of ca. 51 million m3 up to the year 2000. After that it would be possible gradually to increase the removal. This drain would not itself to utilise fully the already existing production capacity of the industry.
Alternative II: Consequences of the predicted removal if the Teho programme is realised as such. The wood utilization forecast based on the premises given to the team show that the annual drain will grow in 1964–1975 from 52 to 58 million m3, and thereafter by 0.5% annually. This would lead to over-cutting, and exhaust the present growing stock by the turn of the century. If annual total drain of ca. 58 million m3 would after 1975 be sufficient, exhaustion of the growing stock would be postponed for 4–5 years.
Alternative III. Teho programme expanded in conformity with the removal forecast. A new programme is proposed, which includes, among others, large scale fertilization of fully grown firm forest land at about the rate of 100,000 ha/year, intensified artificial regeneration, assurance of the supply of planting stock and seed, increase of forest drainage from the present 155,000 to 250,000 ha/year by 1970, site preparation of the cutting areas for artificial regeneration, increase of tending or seeding stands to 300,000 ha/year, replacement of fuelwood by other fuels, increase of wood import and new forest roads.
Two lines can be defined in the management planning for the State Forests of Finland: 1) general planning for regions and inspectional sub-regions based on forest inventory, and 2) management plans for individual districts based on the revision of each district after 10–15 years. Long-term planning is has recently been alleviated by several new methods, such as stock-development forecast and yield tables.
A stock-development forecast and cutting budget were prepared separately for each State Forest region. The present growing stock was based on the data collected in the inventory in 1951–1955. Desirable stock for each region was calculated. The methods to calculate total cut during near future, allowable cut, allowable cut by timber products, the long-term development of the allowable cut, and conditions for realizing the allowable cut are presented in the paper.
The development of the growing stock towards a desirable condition requires also realization of a silvicultural program. Because the Finnish forest industry is expanding vigorously, the amount of the allowable cut on a sustained basis must be estimated carefully. Otherwise the demand for wood may exceed the supply. Though there are many sources of error in preparing a long-term cutting budget, it was considered necessary for State Forestry. An approximate estimate of the largest cut on a sustained basis and a program of silvicultural measures necessary to increase the yield gradually has been worked out.
The PDF includes a summary in English.
The purpose of the investigation was to study the factors which determine the amount of the largest permanent allowable cut and to work out a method to estimate it. There is a need to have a ’short cut’ formula for rough preliminary estimates. The preliminary estimates will be checked by stock development forecasts. The largest allowable cut and its sustained basis are only guaranteed by a forecast through a period during which all the present tree stands have reached maturity and exploited.
Estimations of the largest permanent allowable cut are based on the data of the present and desirable growing stock. The present stock was a growing stock of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) dominated stands on Vaccinium type forests in Southern Finland. The connected Austrian formula is a simple way for preliminary estimation of the largest cut but its sustained basis must be checked by a stock development forecast.
In a stock development forecast the future increment and cut are calculated. For this purpose, the average site quality, tree species, age class and average volume in each class seem to be sufficient variables. The forecast is carried out within the limiting data of the present and desirable stock.
If there is an abundance of mature and over-mature stands, the largest permanent allowable cut is greater than the present increment, provided, however, that bulk of the cut is drawn by determined generation measures. Measured in solid cubic meters, the sustained cut from the Southern Finnish pine stock exceeds the present increment by 11%. With regard to the sustained saw timber production the cut can exceed the present increment by 5–7%.
The PDF includes a summary in English.
In the study, the potential allowable cut in the district of North-Savo, Eastern Finland was clarified based on the non-industrial private forest landowners’ (NIPF) choices of timber management strategies. Alternative timber management strategies were generated, and the choices and factors affecting the choices of timber management strategies by NIPF landowners were studied. The choices of timber management strategies were solved by maximizing the utility functions of the NIPF landowners. The parameters of the utility functions were estimated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
The level of the potential allowable cut was compared to the cutting budgets based on the 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories (NFI7, NFI8) in Finland, to the combining of private forestry plans, and to the realized drain from non-industrial private forests. The potential allowable cut was calculated using the MELA system that has been used in calculating the national cutting budget.
The data consisted of the NIPF holdings that had been inventoried compartmentwise and had forestry plans made in 1984–92. The NIPF landowners’ choices of timber management strategies were clarified by a mail inquiry.
The most preferred strategy obtained was ”sustainability” (chosen by 62% of landowners). The second was ”finance” (17%) and the third ”savings” (11%). ”No cuttings”, and ”maximum cuttings” were the least preferred (9% and 1%, resp.). The factors promoting the choices of strategies with intensive cuttings were: a) ”farmer as forest owner” and ”owing fields”, b) ”increase in the size of the forest holding”, c) agriculture and forestry orientation in production, d) ”decreasing short-term stumpage earnings expectations”, e) ”increasing intensity of future cuttings”, and f) ”choice of forest taxation system based on site productivity”.
The potential allowable cut defined in the study was 20% higher than the average of the realized drain in 1988–93, which was at the same level as the cutting budget based on the combining of forestry plans in Eastern Finland. The potential allowable cut defined in the study was 12% lower than the NFI8-based greatest sustained allowable cut for the 1990. Using the method, timber management strategies can be clarified for private forest owners.