Articles by Olli-Pekka Tikkanen

Disturbances caused by the European spruce bark beetle (SBB; Ips typographus L.) on Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.), have increased immensely across Central and Northern Europe, and are expected to increase further as a result of climate change. While this trend has been noted in Finland, so far limited research has been published. To support proper SBB risk management in Finland, we compared stand properties between salvage loggings due to SBB damage during 2012–2020 (4691 cases) and spruce stands free of SBB damage. Also, we explored the role of landscape attributes as drivers of SBB damage. We considered the forest stand attributes of site fertility class, stand development class, soil type, stand mean diameter at breast height and mean stand age. Considered forest landscape attributes were the distance from SBB-damaged stands to the closest clear-cut, to previous-year SBB-damaged stands and to the previous-year wind-damaged stand. We used nationwide forest logging and forest stock data, and analysed forest stand attributes using chi-squared and Mann-Whitney U tests and landscape attributes using generalised linear mixed models. Based on our findings, the SBB didn’t damage stands randomly, but prevailed in mature stands (high age and high mean diameter at breast height), in herb-rich heath forest site types and in semi-coarse or coarse heath forest soil soils. We found correlation between the landscape variables and the number of salvage loggings, with a higher number of loggings due to SBB damage close to clear-cuts. Our results help to find risk areas of SBB damage.

• Pulgarin Diaz, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0554-8254 E-mail: alexander.pulgarin.diaz@uef.fi
• Melin, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), P.O. Box 68, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7290-9203 E-mail: markus.melin@luke.fi
• Ylioja, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, FI-0079 Helsinki, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8840-7504 E-mail: tiina.ylioja@luke.fi
• Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1884-3084 E-mail: paivi.lyytikainen-saarenmaa@ef.fi
• Peltola, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: heli.peltola@uef.fi
• Tikkanen, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3875-2772 E-mail: olli-pekka.tikkanen@uef.fi

We used forest ecosystem model simulations to study how forest conservation and management intensity affected timber yield, ecosystem carbon stocks, amount of dead wood, and habitat suitability area in a middle boreal forest region of Finland under changing climate over a 90-year simulation period. We used the following forest conservation and management scenarios: baseline forest management (BM), BM with 10 or 20% increase of conservation area with or without intensified forest management (i.e. improved forest regeneration material and forest fertilization). The simulations were done under current climate (reference period of 1981–2010), and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change projections under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 forcing scenarios. Overall, increasing the forest conservation area decreased timber yield and increased the ecosystem carbon stock, the amount of dead wood and consequently the area of suitable habitat for saproxylic species. The use of intensified forest management reduced the loss of timber yield, increased ecosystem carbon stock, the amount of dead wood and area of suitable habitat for saproxylic species. At the end of simulation period, the use of intensified forest management even overcompensated (4–6% higher) the timber loss from 10% increase of conservation area. Under changing climate, timber yield, the amount of dead wood and the area of suitable habitats for saproxylic species increased. To conclude, with intensified forest management it is possible, in the short term, to decrease the loss of timber yield through increased forest conservation area and in the long term maintain or even increase it compared to baseline forest management.

• Pikkarainen, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Yliopistokatu 7, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5301-3639 E-mail: laura.pikkarainen@uef.fi
• Strandman, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Yliopistokatu 7, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9400-6424 E-mail: harri.strandman@uef.fi
• Vento, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Yliopistokatu 7, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: eerik.vento@gmail.com
• Petty, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Yliopistokatu 7, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6595-1386 E-mail: aaron.petty@uef.fi
• Tikkanen, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Yliopistokatu 7, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3875-2772 E-mail: olli-pekka.tikkanen@uef.fi
• Kilpeläinen, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Yliopistokatu 7, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4299-0578 E-mail: antti.kilpelainen@uef.fi
• Peltola, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Yliopistokatu 7, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: heli.peltola@uef.fi

European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus [L.]; SBB) damage has reached extreme and unprecedented levels in East Central Sweden, likely driven by increasing temperatures and severe drought due to climate change. However, SBB outbreaks have been less severe on the eastern side of the Baltic Sea, in Estonia and Finland, than in Sweden. This study investigated how precipitation, temperature sum, and droughts (hydrothermic index) have varied in land areas surrounding the Baltic Sea. We studied past meteorological observations from 1950 to 1999. We modeled the effect of climate change on precipitation and temperature using three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and multiple (17–23) climate models. Future climate projections (up to 2100) were made for Southeastern Estonia, Southern Finland, and East Central Sweden. Weather data showed that temperature sums had been high and droughts severe in the 2010s, particularly in East Central Sweden, where SBB outbreaks have been a more significant problem than on the eastern shores of the Baltic Sea. Future climate projections suggest that increases in temperature sum will further enhance SBB reproduction, especially in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In all climate change scenarios, drought continues to be a problem in East Central Sweden, potentially facilitating SBB outbreaks. In addition, moderate and severe droughts may become more frequent in Southeastern Estonia and Southern Finland if climate change proceeds as predicted in the RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenarios.

• Tikkanen, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3875-2772 E-mail: Olli-Pekka.Tikkanen@uef.fi
• Lehtonen, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7317-9580 E-mail: Ilari.Lehtonen@fmi.fi

• Tikkanen, Department of Biology, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland (Current: School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland) & Interdisciplinary Research and Educational Center of Cross-border Communication CARELICA, Institute of History, Political and Social Sciences, Petrozavodsk State University, 33 Lenin Prospectus, 185910 Petrozavodsk, Republic of Karelia, Russia E-mail: Olli-Pekka.Tikkanen@uef.fi
• Chernyakova, Interdisciplinary Research and Educational Center of Cross-border Communication CARELICA, Institute of History, Political and Social Sciences, Petrozavodsk State University, 33 Lenin Prospectus, 185910 Petrozavodsk, Republic of Karelia, Russia E-mail: irina.chernyakova@onego.ru

Forests are affected by climate change in various ways. This includes abiotic factors such as droughts, but also biotic damage by pest insects. There are numerous examples from cases where pest insects have benefitted from longer growing seasons or from warmer summers. Similarly, new pest insects have been able to expand their range due to climatic conditions that have changed from hostile to tolerable. Such seems to be the case with the nun moth (Lymantria monacha), an important defoliator of coniferous trees in Europe. For centuries, the species has had massive outbreaks across Central-Europe, while it has been a rare inhabitant in Northern Europe. Recently, the nun moth population in Finland has not only expanded in range, but also grown more abundant. This research note describes the results from the first years (2018–2019) of a monitoring program that is being conducted with pheromone traps across central and southern Finland. So far, the northernmost individuals were trapped near the 64 N degrees. However, there were more southern locations where no moths were trapped. The species was present in every trapping site below the latitude of 62 N degrees. More importantly, at some sites the abundance of the nun moth suggested that local forest damage may already occur. Given the current climatic scenarios for Fennoscandia, it is likely that the nun moth populations will continue to grow, which is why systematic surveys on their abundance and range expansions will be topical.

• Melin, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Yliopistokatu 6b, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7290-9203 E-mail: markus.melin@luke.fi
• Viiri, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Yliopistokatu 6b, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland; UPM-Kymmene Oyj, UPM Forest, Åkerlundinkatu 11 B, FI-33100 Tampere, Finland E-mail: heli.viiri@upm.com
• Tikkanen, University of Eastern Finland, School of Forest Sciences, Yliopistokatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: olli-pekka.tikkanen@uef.fi
• Elfving, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Yliopistokatu 6b, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland; University of Oulu, Department of Biology, Pentti Kaiteran katu 1, FI-90014 Oulu, Finland E-mail: riku.elfving@gmail.com
• Neuvonen, University of Turku, Biodiversity Unit, Kevo Subarctic Research Institute, FI-20014 Turku, Finland E-mail: seppo.neuvonen@utu.fi