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Articles containing the keyword 'scenario analysis'

Category : Research article

article id 23012, category Research article
Jari Vauhkonen, Juho Matala, Ari Nikula. (2023). Future browsing damage in seedling stands according to projected forest resources and moose population density. Silva Fennica vol. 57 no. 2 article id 23012. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.23012
Keywords: forest management planning; forest development simulation; forest projection; Markov chain; scenario analysis; transition matrix model
Highlights: Projections of forest resources and seedling stands damaged by moose browsing; Damaged seedling stand area modelled by moose population and forest characteristics; Moose damage predicted by the age class structure of simulated future forests.
Abstract | Full text in HTML | Full text in PDF | Author Info
An important modifier of forests and forestry practices is browsing by cervids. As high populations of moose (Alces alces L.) cause extensive forest damage in the Fennoscandian boreal forests, models should be able to predict the susceptibility of projected forest structures to browse damage. We augmented the European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM) for the area of seedling stands damaged by moose. The augmented model was tested in projecting both forest resources and moose damage for 18 million hectares of forest land in Finland, based on input data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI). Modeling the area of seedling stands damaged as a function of moose population density, forest characteristics, and region-specific interactions of these variables was found to work realistically for 30 years, predicting that the area of seedling stands damaged by moose would increase by up to a third from the last NFI observation. Our work lays the groundwork for modeling consequential, large-scale ecological and socio-economic effects of moose browsing.
  • Vauhkonen, University of Eastern Finland, School of Forest Sciences, Yliopistokatu 7, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland; University of Helsinki, Department of Forest Sciences, Latokartanonkaari 7, FI-00014 Helsingin yliopisto, Finland E-mail: jari.vauhkonen@uef.fi
  • Matala, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Natural resources, Yliopistokatu 6 B, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: juho.matala@luke.fi
  • Nikula, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Natural resources, Ounasjoentie 6, FI-96200 Rovaniemi, Finland ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8372-8440 E-mail: ari.nikula@luke.fi
article id 202, category Research article
Tuula Nuutinen, Antti Kilpeläinen, Hannu Hirvelä, Kari Härkönen, Veli-Pekka Ikonen, Reetta Lempinen, Heli Peltola, Lars Wilhelmsson, Seppo Kellomäki. (2009). Future wood and fibre sources – case North Karelia in eastern Finland. Silva Fennica vol. 43 no. 3 article id 202. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.202
Keywords: National Forest Inventory; fibre length; wood density; proportion of latewood; forest scenario analysis
Abstract | View details | Full text in PDF | Author Info
Information on the potential wood supply is important for the wood industry. In this study, the future development of growing stock, cutting potential and wood properties corresponding to the regional scenario of North Karelian Forest Programme 2006–2010 was analysed. The simulations were performed by employing the Finnish MELA system together with the sample plot and tree data of the 9th Finnish National Forest Inventory (NFI9) as initial data for the simulations. Disc-based models for basic wood density, proportion of latewood and fibre length of Norway spruce and Scots pine in Sweden were calibrated and integrated into the MELA system. The wood properties at breast height of both harvested and standing trees were analysed in different strata (age, site type and cutting method) during the scenario period of 50 years (2002–2052). The average wood properties within the same strata varied only slightly over time. However, the results for different strata differed considerably. In general, wood density, fibre length and proportion of latewood increased, on average, as a function of tree age and along with a decrease in site fertility (excl. wood density and proportion of latewood in harvested Norway spruce in the first case and fibre length in the latter case for both species). For trees less than 80 years, properties in harvested trees were equal to or slightly greater than those of standing trees. The values for clear-cuttings were greater or equal to those of thinnings (excl. wood density and proportion of latewood in Norway spruce). The study demonstrates the value of model-based analyses utilising NFI tree measurements in regions that are considered to be sources of raw material.
  • Nuutinen, European Forest Institute, Torikatu 34, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: tuula.nuutinen@efi.int (email)
  • Kilpeläinen, University of Joensuu, Faculty of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: ak@nn.fi
  • Hirvelä, Finnish Forest Research Institute, P.O. Box 18, FI-01301 Vantaa, Finland E-mail: hh@nn.fi
  • Härkönen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, P.O. Box 18, FI-01301 Vantaa, Finland E-mail: kh@nn.fi
  • Ikonen, University of Joensuu, Faculty of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: vpi@nn.fi
  • Lempinen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, P.O. Box 68, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: rl@nn.fi
  • Peltola, University of Joensuu, Faculty of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: hp@nn.fi
  • Wilhelmsson, Skogforsk, Uppsala Science Park, SE-751 83 Uppsala, Sweden E-mail: lw@nn.fi
  • Kellomäki, University of Joensuu, Faculty of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: sk@nn.fi

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